Kooks and Computer Coders needed for experiment.

[GrannyMae]

but I need to work out what I am talking about first

if i worried about stoopid sh*t like this, i would have only 4 posts.

[polarbear]

Here's something you can test:

The probability of flopping a set if you have a pocket pair, and there was a flop. You only need to look at your own hands.

Sure, there's the small effect of the deck being ace rich if everyone folds and you have AA, etc, but the results should be fairly accurate.

For some reason it seems like there's a better chance of flopping a set online than in live play, why, I have no idea.

[mongeron]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
I think a good test would be a comparison of all-in bets and calls when the second best hand before the all in bet wins.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually a this kind of test has been made, I read yesterday about it at RGP. The analysis was done by Steve Brecher, and the subject of the mail starts like this: "PokerStars tournament all-in pot equities v".

According to that post, the all-in situations went as they should.

- mongeron

[Miah]

You play twice as many hands per hour online as you do in a casino, therefore you flop sets aproximately 2x more than you would expect to at a B&amp;M.

Also, if you are like me and play 22 UTG while chanting to yourself "implied odds implied odds" this could increase it as well....

[HavanaBanana]

Some hands are more likely to win from the getgo, if they did random deals,with a marked account getting fewer winning hands, with the assigned player to lose more than his fair share this would show up in the starting hands he would get.

Take a suspected marked account, bring 9 2+2 friends, play 2c-4c holdem with noone ever folding.
the marked account should lose in 8 hours or play right?

or, if you are REALLY sure it is fixed so the winners will become losers, then make new account , play from a new computer, buy in at 30-60 and play your little heart out to the river!
Even better, make an initial depost and lose it on purpose, then redeposit and play 30-60 you cant lose!

Don't come to me to borrow money later though.

You are the Weakest Link.... Goodbye.

[XlgJoe]

As i stated I don't believe the major sites are fixed.

All I was trying to say was that I don't believe doing a tracking of board flops/flush over flush/etc will indicate anything. To many poker programs keeping stats to get away with manipulating the deal.

Most people believe Propoker.com(not positive on site name) is rigged. Could this study prove them rigged? It would be nice if it could, but I doubt it will be able.

[Carl_William]

Hi Lori,

You posted:

"Okay,

I believe that the distribution thing can be solved, but I need the help of kooks and computer coders.

The experiment runs like this.

Could the Kooks please post which things they would expect to be rigged, Im not talking "The number of Aces on the flop" or "The number of times a player is dealt Kings" because all but the toughest of conspiracy experts have seen enough evidence to the contrary of this...surely. (and so on).... "

Dear Lori,

What you are talking about is about almost “The Impossible Dream – The Lady of Mancha.” It is possible – maybe, but not probable for many reasons. The ROI (Return on Investment “time &amp; brains”) would be essentially nil except maybe for a very few exceptional poker players – how they would use this to make a profit is subject to who-knows-what. It would be very difficult to get a fair and accurate set (population) of data to analyze. Granted, it would be fun to know all of this stuff, but what is analyzed is similar to a “house-of-cards.” A “puff of air” or a “vibration of the table” or a treak of the casino software program and everything changes. This task could be accomplished by a set of expert programmers within an Internet Casino Site if they wanted to pay for it – but would they share the unbiased results of the study with others – I don’t think so…. Some comments….
(Lori -- you know all of the below
For a flop game and using a data tracker, each stage of the flop, turn, river, and total set of visible board cards would be easy to analyze for a suitable large number of trials (deals). Using counting techniques, the number of all pertinent card sets could be compared with theory and determined if they are within acceptable tolerances. For example (for five board cards): for 10 times Combin(52,5) deals there should be approximately 10 times 3744 full houses plus-or-minus some acceptable statistical deviation. Analyses like this are easily done. Analyzing the private down-cards in a holdem game for an online Internet casino is no easy chore….

Can access to all the private cards in an Internet casino holdem game be collected? Assuming yes, then it would be easy to analyze the data and determine if all pertinent things are within the theoretical acceptable tolerances – no big deal. But….

I don’t know how any outsider could ever get good data for the Internet casino player’s private cards – this includes all hands that are dealt for the deal for all deals recorded.

I hope I'm not boring the Zoo population (visitors &amp; those who live there). But I will make more comments in the near future which I feel might be interesting to some....

Carl

[Terry]

ProPoker is "different." If you watch the games for 20 minutes and then buy in, you need ... ??? ... something, but I don't know what.