AQo, turn decision regarding reverse implied odds

[einbert]

This is a hand that came up today at the twoplustwo table. It was a serious game, but I felt that sthief was being pretty loose and mixing it up in a lot of pots. Baron was getting three-bet a lot by him so I felt it was quite unlikely he would be getting out of line preflop.

Preflop:Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Folded to baronzeus in the HJ who openraises, sthief09 threebets him from the CO, folded to me and I call, baronzeus calls

Flop: (9.3 SB)
T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
I check, baron bets, sthief folds, I call

Turn: (5.65 BB)
4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I check, baron bets.

I had to think quite a few seconds before deciding what to do. After I did it, I thought about it some more and I'm still not sure what the correct play is. What range of hands do you put baron on and what is your action? If you call, what are your plans on some rivers, particularly on an A, K, Q, J or T, or 2.


I would also be glad to hear what everyone thinks about the merits of capping preflop as opposed to calling. If you cap preflop, what is your first play on the flop?

[w_alloy]

I suck but I'll try.

I think baron's most likely holdings are AJ, KJ, AT, KQ, and QJ. If he's getting 3 bet a lot he'll prolly cap JJ-AA and AK. TT, 77, and AQ are all possible too, but are less likely.

Against all of these except the most unlinkly (QJ) a Q is an out here. The K is obviously good. The A is only good against 2 out of 5 of these, and theres a moderate chance 1 is gone, so we'll count it as 1 out bringing our total to 8. Lets discount this back to 7 because of reverse implied if behind on the Q and A and because of the sets.

With 7 outs, you are getting odds to call. I dont think a raise is good here, as you arent ahead often and I dont think he folds much on such a blank (it would be a wierd slowplay, what could you have?).

On the river, I check-raise a king (i think hes betting this more than half the time but not raising given his range). I bet/call a Q and check-call an A.

Edit: I check fold all other cards. It seems from your question you put him on a much wider range than me. I am curious as to why, as I have never played in a game like this.

[HolyBejeesus]

I would have capped this pf since sthief had been iso 3-betting baron a lot. While baron was not raising fluff, your hand fares pretty well against the range of hands he can value-raise from the HJ.

I put baron on AJ-QJ, AT-KT, and 77-TT, with more weight to the one pair hands since it looks like he was trying to protect his hand by betting into the pfr (of course this depends on the dynamic between the two of them).

Anyway, you have 7 outs assuming one of your cards is reverse dominated, which is a very marginal call getting 6.65:1. You may have up to 10 outs, which makes this an easy call, but this happens when he has 88 or 99, which is less likely. Your decision here seems pretty EV neutral, without factoring implied odds. I like to suck out, so I would call and use the following river plan:
A/Q - bet/fold
K - check/raise
other - fold

I bet/fold A and Q because I am not comfortable putting 2 more bets into the pot with this river, and don't want him taking a free showdown with a T or pp.

[w_alloy]

The reason I thought bet/calling a queen was better then bet/folding is because KQ is a very possible hand for him to have and he could raise with this, while there are not many hands he beats you with when a Q hits. Combined with the chances that he bluff raises you here, I think calling a raise is better.

I also think you should have capped this preflop. I'm not sure what I would have done on this flop if you had capped, my first instinct is check/call.

[HolyBejeesus]

I considered this as well, but I thought baron would be more likely to check-raise the flop with KQ. I've never played with him but if he is tricky enough we might have to call the river to pick off a bluff.

[baronzeus]

This is good, except I'd cap TT preflop.

It's very close, but if einbert plans on snapping off a bluff by calling the river he needs to fold the turn.


BTW QJ is as likely any other hand in my range.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason I thought bet/calling a queen was better then bet/folding is because KQ is a very possible hand for him to have and he could raise with this, while there are not many hands he beats you with when a Q hits. Combined with the chances that he bluff raises you here, I think calling a raise is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

KQ does seem like a likely holding for baron, in fact it's pretty much the only hand I can put him on that I currently beat. Also I believe he would check the turn with that hand some percentage of the time, and check the flop some percentage of the time. But it is definitely in the range I give him.

I have really good equity against the range of hands I put him on the turn if a Q comes off on the river. The trouble is getting him to put in a bet with a hand I beat while not losing two bets to another hand. Betting out seems right but he's pretty much raising everything better, however I don't think he would raise KQo. There doesn't seem to be much value in that considering the board and that AK is a very possible holding for me, in addition to QTs perhaps.

[ QUOTE ]
I also think you should have capped this preflop. I

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I think the key reason for this is that by calling, since they are both good hand readers they will be able to put me on quite a narrow range of hands (AJs, AQo, 77-JJ roughly) and play very accordingly. Me being OOP makes this a really bad hit to take.