How much money will I make with this hand?

DavidC · #1 09-16-2005, 04:40 AM

Hey guys, please let me tell you a story about a hand dealt in a private game at the Bellagio. It's a Limit Holdem game, with stakes of $500/$1000:

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I'm dealt T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]o. I've been drinking a bit, and before you know it, I'm at the flop, heads-up and out of position with one opponent, who has A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. The pot is 8SB... I come to my senses and decide to play perfect poker.

Flop comes up 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

As the dealer was flopping the cards, he fumbled the deck, and revealed the remaining T's, 9's, and aces. The floorman was call over, who decided to light them on fire with his zippo, before tossing them into a trash can.

We complained that there were fewer cards in the deck now, so he brought over 8 jokers and put them in the deck, and had the deck reshuffled. The jokers can be turned up on the turn and river, just like regular cards, except that neither player can use them for anything, nor do they affect the board. They're just blanks.

Now, our opponent is 100% predictable, because he's a computer program with perfect circuitry. I know, I know, it's weird, but I hang out with a pretty crazy group of guys.

His name is Silicon Slim, and he's very predictable. He will play his hand in the following manner: He'll bet at every opportunity until he's raised. As soon as he's raised once throughout the course of the hand, he'll call down or check down: he's vulnerable to a single checkraise. If I bet at him at any point during the hand, he'l just call down for the rest of the hand.

Since I was the one who put up such a complaint about the burnt cards, the floorman rules that I'm not allowed to bet out on the flop. I can only check, or open-muck, if I choose.

So I check the flop to Slim, he bets, and I cleverly go for my raise... However, I fumble a few chips, and the dealer calls it a string-raise. I protest, the floorman threatens me with the zippo, and I calm down promptly. It's been judged that I've called the flop bet.

I'm planning to therefore chase my draw, checkraise if I hit, as soon as I hit, and fold the river if I miss.

I know this has been a long story, so I'll only ask a quick question: How much money do I expect to make or lose from the flop forward in this hand (including my flop call)?

I can't really remember what happened before the flop... it's possible that the dealer was putting in for me out of his chip tray or something, so we can't really count the preflop as part of the EV on the hand. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Anyways, any help would be appreciated.

Sincerely,
DavidC.

sthief09 · #2 09-16-2005, 06:16 AM

what's the over/under on how much weed this guy smoked to get himself into the state to make this post?

wheelz · #3 09-16-2005, 06:43 AM

a quarter

sthief09 · #4 09-16-2005, 06:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
a quarter

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he'd be incapacitated...

admiralfluff · #5 09-16-2005, 07:43 AM

Just weed, I'd lay even that he had over a gram to himself. I suspect shrooms may have played a part as well though...

Brom · #6 09-16-2005, 07:43 AM

Ounce, pound or kilo?

wheelz · #7 09-16-2005, 07:51 AM

ounce. could've been over the course of the night, you know?

Zetack · #8 09-16-2005, 11:03 AM

It's pretty easy math. You'll win 1062.50 Of course I had to change this:

[ QUOTE ]
I'm planning to therefore chase my draw, checkraise if I hit, as soon as I hit, and fold the river if I miss.

[/ QUOTE ] because this is clearly from some other hand. Obviously you're folding on the turn if you miss.

--Zetack

DavidC · #9 09-16-2005, 07:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's pretty easy math. You'll win 1062.50 Of course I had to change this:

[ QUOTE ]
I'm planning to therefore chase my draw, checkraise if I hit, as soon as I hit, and fold the river if I miss.

[/ QUOTE ] because this is clearly from some other hand. Obviously you're folding on the turn if you miss.

--Zetack

[/ QUOTE ]

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No... I'm not folding the turn! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] There'll be 5bb in there on the turn.

And this isn't from another hand, unless you count like the infinite amount of times I've flopped some sort of draw as this hand. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyone know the answer and have some sort of explanation as to how they got it?

I know that something like this is discussed in "Weighing the odds" by King Yao, but I haven't gotten that book yet. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Learning this answer is the first step in evaluating other poker decisions.

timprov · #10 09-16-2005, 08:24 PM

Ohhh K. He's ahead, you can only catch up with your 8 outs, you win 3 BB when you make the draw and lose 1 when you miss, plus there are 5BB in the pot.

You've seen 7 cards, so there are 45 left in the deck. You'll make your draw 8/45 times on the turn and 37/45 * 8/44 times on the river. To estimate, call that .178 + .149 or 32.7 % of the time. So out of 1000 tries you'll win 8 BB 327 times and lose 1 BB 673 times, for a total of 1943 or 1.943 BB per trial.

So you win $1943.

This is pretty simple, and everybody ought to understand it.