Satellite Situation - do you go for it or not

[Magician]

50 + 5 pound satellite for a big tournament on Sunday at the Vic in London (with rebuys and top-ups).

Number of qualifiers is fixed at 5 out of an original 36 runners and all rebuys and top-ups only add to the prize pool and don't add at all to the number of seats.

I'm at the final table with 10 of us left. I've got 4,600 chips out of an original 1,000 and I estimate that the average stack should be about 5,500 or so - with just one massive stack (to my right), but most others having stacks within 1,000 chips of my own (second chip leader has maybe 2,000 more chips or so).

Blinds are 300/600 and it's just been announced that the blinds go up again (I reckon to 400/800?) after two orbits (including the current one, i.e. about 19 more hands).

I'm in UTG + 2 (second hand of the final table, and blinds are coming soon). UTG folds. UTG + 1 (monster stack) folds.

I've got AQo.

No one ahead of me has a stack big enough that it won't be crippled he calls me and loses.

If I raise to 3 or 4 BB, I figure it's too big a portion of my stack to muck if re-raised.

So it's all in or fold (is flat calling an option here)?

What's the play here?

[GrinningBuddha]

A raise to 1800 will leave you with 2800, which is still enough to do a lot of damage even if you have to end up folding. I'm not a fan of min-raises, nor do I think you need to commit any more than this to get your point across. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If you're called, proceed cautiously...

[Magician]

But if you raise to 1,800 then muck - you'll have 2,800 for just two more hands.

When the blinds come you'll be down to 1,900 and it will be dire indeed.

[Goodie]

Magician,

This is very player dependant. If all the stacks after you are fairly solid players and understand the dynamics of a sattelite, then I think you can safely raise to 1800 and fold to a re-raise. Because it's a sattelite, and nobody behind you is in desperation mode, it's very unlikely that you'll see a re-raise from a hand that your winning against.

Also, if they are reasonable, they will not flat call any bet since they are in a raise all in or fold situation. So, an 1800 bet will fold all the hands that a 4600 dollar bet will and you can get away from the hand and still have a chance if re-raised since you will safely know your in terrible shape.

Peace
Goodie

[JohnG]

Eiher move-in or fold. Raising less and then folding is not an option in my mind. Even ignoring other reasons, the psychological implications on future play is just too horrible for me to think about.

[Copernicus]

[ QUOTE ]
Eiher move-in or fold. Raising less and then folding is not an option in my mind. Even ignoring other reasons, the psychological implications on future play is just too horrible for me to think about.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont understand your "psychological implications" concern, and think that $1500-1800 is the right bet here. If,as implied, your standard raise has been 3 or 4x the BB, and you win this without a showdown, or if you fold to a reraise and rebuild your stack you have added some element of variation to your play that can only help. If you win in a showdown its even better, because you will have some leverage and a lot of concern over how strong your 3x or 4x standards have become, compared to the "mini bet" with a relatively strong hand.

[JohnG]

Psychological with regards being bullied in future, both in this sat and in future tournaments if you play with the same people often.

[Magician]

I decided that many players would re-raise with an underpair and knowing this I wouldn't fold to a re-raise anyway.

I shoved my stack in. UTG + 4 called and turned over AA.

The more I think about it though, the more I believe it was bad luck and not a bad play.

If the blinds were smaller that would be a different matter entirely.