creative thinking or just dumb?

[tinhat]

This hand will be easy to poo-poo but please don't get hung up on "small pot" or "weak hand" or "oop" or "no pfr" - look past that for a minute. I'm interested in the concept and this particular example hand can come in many different forms:

I have a hand I'd like to play but clearly would have to fold to a flop bet if I check. To avoid that, it's not unreasonable to assume I could be good at this point so I lead for the express purpose of seeing the turn card. (Rainbow flop, no ace, oop lead, not too unreasonable to think it won't be raised but that doesn't really matter anyway.)

I don't know the % of hitting gutshot on the next card if it isn't always 1 in 11 but since I only do this multiway it seems the times I lose a sb is worth the 1 time I hit. I wouldn't do this unless it was multiway, somewhat favorable flop and without big street raises the win is marginal compared to sbs lost (but marginals add up).

The point is I'm trying to avoid having to fold a nut gutshot to a flop bet assuming that multiway it won't get checked around (lp could bet ace high into weakness for instance or oesd might bet). I don't fear a pair - I just don't have odds to call if I let a pair lead. So if there's a flaw here, what is it?


Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>