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  #1  
Old 05-29-2005, 11:10 AM
bfc bfc is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Sweden
Posts: 21
Default Flopped top set - did i fold the winner?

This hand kept me awake last night.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) converter

MP2 ($200)
MP3 ($228.25)
CO ($50.30)
Button ($235.10)
SB ($222.65)
BB ($49.90)
UTG ($226.95)
UTG+1 ($195.55)
Hero ($226.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $6</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $6, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>.

Flop: ($15) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16</font>, UTG calls $10.

Turn: ($47) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $45</font>, UTG calls $45.

River: ($137) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $159.95 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

Did I fold the winner?

The villain is a very solid player (VP$IP 18, PFR 6 over 1500 hands). I love this flop! Based on his raise UTG there are not many hands he can have and I'm a 10:1 favourite against an overpair, even stronger if he's flopped a smaller set, and he's drawing dead with AKo. In hindsight I feel I should have smooth called the flop, firstly because I don't want him to fold and secondly I don't want to reveal the strength of my hand.

My dilemma is that he knows I've made my hand on the flop and the river has brought a possible flush and possible straight which he knows I don't have. I play reasonaly tight and he's seen me fold to reraises so he may see this as an opportunity for a big bluff.

I has fairly confident that he didn't have a straight or flush (I think he's too good to call the turn with a hand like AhKh and wouldn't have raised UTG with small connecting cards) so the only two hands he could reasonably have that beat me were TT or JJ. Had he sucked out or was he running a big bluff? I've only been playing several months and one of my leaks is paying off solid players too often and this influenced my decision to fold.

I think that by smooth calling the flop I could have avoided this dilemma since the villain would have to put me on a wider range of hands and he may have bet the turn with hands like AA or KK. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on this hand.
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  #2  
Old 05-29-2005, 08:40 PM
xorbie xorbie is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,828
Default Re: Flopped top set - did i fold the winner?

Flop raise is fine. If you want to change anything, check behind on the turn, making it look like he caught your bluff.

Very hard decision on the river, because it's hard to see what he could have besides JJ.

edit: It says he has soon you fold before. This might tilt me the other way, and lead me to believe he could just have AA/KK/QQ and be trying to bluff the flush.
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