On the Edge - IX

[NLSoldier]

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The narrative makes it clear that queen-high is the best hand after Villain checkraises the flop. Hero should call the flop checkraise and wait for the autobet on the turn. If a heart or a new small card hits then Hero is in trouble and should call down. His hand may still be good and he has many potential outs. But if the board pairs or a high card hits Hero is in the clear and can raise for protection/value

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My thoughts exactly.

[HDPM]

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i don't like the move on the river and think it will be long term EV-

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Granny, you are incorrect. The opponent folded after he raised.

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You are incorrigible El D. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[TwoNiner]

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and the two tightest players were to my immediate left, allowing me to raise if it was folded to me to pick up the blinds.

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I knew his hand was terrible as he'd raised every time he'd posted, and it was folded to him. He'd shown down hands ranging from one-gappers (six-four offsuit), to suited cards (nine-deuce suited), to Broadway-rag (jack-trey offsuit), to pocket pairs (aces)

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These tight ass blinds sure are calling down a lot in the few hours Tony has been raising his after cigarrete cutoff post when the table folds around to him. If this guy shows down every possible hand range imaginable (including aces) in this certain situation, I still think it's wrong to put him on 7-2 or or something of the sort. The guy raised 6-4. I think your most likely hands for a player of this sort are still something like small suited connector or a big pair. Or maybe more likely he has just seen the futility in raising any of the above said hands since these blinds have turned into calling stations in the last couple of hours. I'd make no read and dump the hand. If your read was right, call flop and raise the auto turn bet.

[adanthar]

Well, it's one or two steps above the last hand, I'll give it that.

Given your read, you have the best hand on the flop, but he has a draw. That's either a 6 or a heart (edit: or 32o, good catch); however, you just said he doesn't have an A through J, so hearts are relatively unlikely. Fine, he most likely has a six and some other crappy card to go with it, maybe a low heart. So he raises and you...

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Unless I caught a queen for top pair or hit my straight, I couldn't comfortably call the turn.

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Why not? You have the best hand...unless you're not as confident in your super duper read as you seem to be up in every post you've ever made in this forum? Nah, couldn't be.

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I couldn't fold due to the likelihood of pushing him off his hand since I knew he had little but a draw (potentially a weak one)

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If he has a draw and his highest possible card is a ten...what "hand"? What are you talking about? How the hell are you pushing him off a draw on any street in limit hold'em, and why are you implying his hand is better than yours?

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I couldn't call as I would then have to defend against a turn bet

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Defend what? On just over four out of five turns, you still know you have the best hand! Huh?

Based on this weirdo reasoning, you reraise (I call/raise the turn, but OK, limit's not my game so I could be wrong here). Fine. Let's move on to the turn:

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Pot: $230 (5.75 Big Bets). The turn was the K.

That couldn't have helped his hand. He checked and I bet, hoping he'd fold. I could have lots of hands that made calling another bet unprofitable, but he called.

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He has a draw and is getting 6.75:1. Do you expect him to put you on a made flush, or is there some other hand you are representing here that he won't have the odds to call with? And are you trying to make a predictable LAG fold? Oh boy.

Blah blah blah river raise blah blah I am brilliant blah. The river's the obvious part, and given the rest of the hand and your read, it plays itself. But given the rest of the hand, you strongly suspect your own read to be false *or* you butchered the reasoning on two streets. Pick one.

[housenuts]

just curious...how long did the hand take to play out? what i mean is in situations like this how long does each deicision take to make?

[phish]

I don't like the pre-flop play. Even if this guy is going to raise any two cards as a late-position post opener, Q6 off is still too weak to gamble with. Pick a better spot, unless you know the blinds are going to fold AND the raiser is actually weak-tight after the flop and will auto-fold if he misses. But seems like the raiser is a bit more tenacious, and against someone like that, Q6 is not the kind of hand you want to have to contest post-flop with.

But other than that, I thought this was a legitimate poker article anyways, unlike his previous two which read more like parodies of poker strategy.

[BarronVangorToth]

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2) Villain's range of hands. I can accept that villian will raise from this spot with any pocket pair, or any Ace (or even any King), but is it too much to think that villain will just check his option with 45o or J2s?

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He'd shown down hands ranging from one-gappers (six-four offsuit), to suited cards (nine-deuce suited), to Broadway-rag (jack-trey offsuit), to pocket pairs (aces).

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He obviously COULD have any of the two hands you mentioned, but seeing as how he'd already raised 64o, I assumed that 54o would likewise be raised; likewise, 92s in regards to J2s.

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3) "His raise was as all his other check-raises on the flop: indicating a draw." Obviously Barron was at the table and can speak to this better, but why can't it be top pair or 2 pair? 2 pair would surely check-raise, and 1 pair could be check raising hoping to blow you off a missed AK, or trying to find out where he's at vs. a possible overpair.

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His check-raise COULD have been that, I guess, but from what I saw up to that point (and saw after the hand in question, and have seen since, as a matter of fact), in these spots, he check-raises draws and bets out on bluffs and "made" hands.


Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

[BarronVangorToth]

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I'm with SW on this one. Given your read, it makes much more sense to wait and pop the turn then 3-bet the flop. Your equity isn't that great. Waiting for the turn allows you to:

1. Evaluate the turn card. a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] likely kills your hand, and non-paint non-straight completing cards should give you a little concern.

2. Represent greater strength. The flop call turn raise sets off alarms in just about everyone's head. Now he may have a harder time showing down a hand like 43o. Your flop 3-bet could very well just be overs with a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

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This is a very good point and I definitely don't think it would've been bad to do just that. And perhaps it would've been the better play. The reason I didn't go this way is that I couldn't have the river option that I did.

So on the flop, I bet, he CRs, I call, on the turn he bets, I raise, and now he...

(1) folds. Perfect. And this might've happened.

(2) calls. Now there is trouble. I've been thinking about how people sometimes feel "invested" in a pot, and it has psychological ramifications, but it's something like this: some people when they get raised on the turn almost take it as an affront and will call, and then check-call the river (especially in the fear in my article that somewhere along the line he picked up bottom / near bottom pair). If only to get satisfaction to see what I'm raising with. By doing it on the flop, while I'm sacrificing .5 BB (1 SB on the flop vs. 1 BB with the raise on the turn), I don't think you get people as invested as it's much more common.

This has NOTHING to do with my article, by the way, as I didn't make this part of the narrative, even though it was part of my thinking and is in these situations, and I certainly haven't worked out the theory enough to make it fit correctly, but, again, the turn raise is obviously a great play and a lot of times with another situation I would call the flop and then raise the turn, but I wanted the chance of blowing him off his hand IF he caught a piece, and I think (right or wrong) that you get people "invested" sometimes with those turn raises and then they call out of frustration / table image / whatever and then check-call the river.

I could go on ... but maybe you see the point as to why I went my way and not another, as I didn't mind that .5BB since I thought it would increase my chances at the pot.


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What's your plan if he doesn't fire at the river? Bet, I assume?

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Yes.

By the way, Despot had a good post above as to another reason to go with my line:

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Have to disagree here Stellar. If Barron's read is that Tony is c/ring a draw, then three-betting the flop is much better. By 3-betting the flop, you can bet any non-heart turn and river, and raise any scare card donk. If you try "calling down" with queen-high, all you're going to do is pay off Tony's better hands as he proceeds to jam any pair to the river. The only way you make money is when Tony jams a busted flush to the river and you call with a better nothing hand. This happens pretty rarely, since Tony may well check-fold the river UI.

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Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

[BarronVangorToth]

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I liked all of the play postflop, but Im not a fan of the preflop raise with trash for two reasons:

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By the way, I should stress, lest it not be apparent, that I'm certainly not saying that my hand is another that should be added to David and Mason's Group 1 holdings.

Rather, as per the article I quoted in this article, I was rather employing (rightly or wrongly) what I dubbed The Mason Move, where he was in this same situation (a post to his right, blinds to his left) and he raised with "trash."

While I certainly was more liberal with my raises in these spots before, this would've been an auto-fold before that article for precisely the thinking you suggest.

And perhaps my 3-for-3 sample size is insignificant (it is) but I think it may be a strategy that, while it doesn't come up much (I have only had the "perfect" opportunity to do this three times in the, approximate, 30,000 live hands I've played this year) can be effective, if you can get away from it if you're obviously going to lose.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

[BarronVangorToth]

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I don't like the pre-flop play. Even if this guy is going to raise any two cards as a late-position post opener, Q6 off is still too weak to gamble with.

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Again: this isn't about Q6, but rather the opportunity.

The cards almost always matter. Almost always.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com