Ugly Bubble situation

[Nottom]

Is there anyway to have avoided my fate here? I hate folding as much as the next guy, but I never saw a spot where I could get my money in and didn't expect the shorty to keep folding until it was too late.

There are a good 4 or 5 decisions here that I very well have completely butchered.

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $4300 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $3020 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $1570 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $1110 )
Trny:14142904 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 3d 7h ]
Shorty folds.
BigStack raises [1000].
2ndStack folds.
HERO folds.
BigStack does not show cards.
BigStack wins 1450 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $4750 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $2870 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $1270 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $1110 )
Trny:14142904 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 4d Ad ]
BigStack raises [800].
2ndStack folds.
HERO folds.
Shorty folds.
BigStack does not show cards.
BigStack wins 1250 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5200 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $2870 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $1120 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $810 )
Trny:14142904 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 3s 9s ]
2ndStack folds.
HERO folds.
Shorty folds.
BigStack does not show cards.
BigStack wins 450 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5350 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $2870 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $1120 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $660 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Td Kd ]
HERO folds.
Shorty folds.
BigStack folds.
2ndStack does not show cards.
2ndStack wins 600 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5150 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $3070 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $1120 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $660 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 9d 6d ]
Shorty folds.
BigStack raises [1000].
2ndStack folds.
HERO folds.
BigStack does not show cards.
BigStack wins 1600 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5750 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $2870 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $720 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $660 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Tc Ad ]
BigStack folds.
2ndStack raises [800].
HERO folds.
Shorty folds.
2ndStack does not show cards.
2ndStack wins 1400 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5750 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $3470 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $520 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $260 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Qh Kd ]
2ndStack folds.
HERO folds.
Shorty folds.
BigStack does not show cards.
BigStack wins 600 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5950 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $3470 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $520 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $60 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 7h Qh ]
HERO folds.
Shorty folds.
BigStack folds.
2ndStack does not show cards.
2ndStack wins 600 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5750 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $3670 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $520 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $60 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Qs Ts ]
Shorty folds.
BigStack folds.
2ndStack folds.
HERO does not show cards.
HERO wins 600 chips

Table Table 35019 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: BigStack ( $5750 )
Seat 5: 2ndStack ( $3470 )
Seat 6: HERO ( $720 )
Seat 10: Shorty ( $60 )
Trny:14142904 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Kd 7d ]
BigStack folds.
2ndStack raises [800].
Your time bank will become active in less than 20 seconds. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
HERO is all-In [520]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6s, Ad, 2d ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9c ]
** Dealing River ** [ 7h ]
2ndStack shows [ Th, Tc ] a pair of tens.
HERO shows [ Kd, 7d ] a pair of sevens.
Shorty shows [ 7s, 6d ] two pairs, sevens and sixes.
2ndStack wins 80 chips from side pot #2 with a pair of tens.
2ndStack wins 1320 chips from side pot #1 with a pair of tens.
Shorty wins 180 chips from the main pot with two pairs, sevens and sixes.
HERO finished in fourth place.
HERO has left the table.
The Small Blind left the table. The Dealer button remains in place.

[HesseJam]

You tried to chicken your way into 3rd. You had two good hands KTs (No.4, that was maybe too early), calling 2nd stack with AT and oushing KQ. You could've done something at that time. However, I sometimes play the same like you and settle for 3rd if I sense that the big guys are bullying and, more important, that the smallest stack is very weak (which he was here).
If that was your strategy, why did you deviate at the worst time from it? If you are capable to play the last hand why didn't you raise the better hands with more FE before? You should've stayed put. The small stack was no threat anymore. He could have tripled up to 180 at best (which he did). He still has to post the small blind at 200 and may drop out there. So the overall survival chance for the small stack going through your last hand and the next hand was only 25%.

[tigerite]

Not pushing the KTs is horrible, in my opinion. The ATo is closer, and the KQo will be called for sure.

[HesseJam]

Yeah, KTs should be pushed. Is it so bad if KQ gets called with any two? Pokerstove gives more than 60 %.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, KTs should be pushed. Is it so bad if KQ gets called with any two? Pokerstove gives more than 60 %.

[/ QUOTE ]

But you want to avoid situations where you are only a slight favourite on the bubble.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Not pushing the KTs is horrible, in my opinion. The ATo is closer, and the KQo will be called for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

The KT push is almost certainly very -EV from an ICM standpoint. Remember the Bigstack is in the blind and will call quite liberally getting better than 2-1. The only question is if this is a time to throw ICM out the window.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not pushing the KTs is horrible, in my opinion. The ATo is closer, and the KQo will be called for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

The KT push is almost certainly very -EV from an ICM standpoint. Remember the Bigstack is in the blind and will call quite liberally getting better than 2-1. The only question is if this is a time to throw ICM out the window.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually the 2nd big stack is in the blind, and your 1100 can make a big dent in his 2400 stack that he now has, I don't think he will call as liberally as you think. Most big stacks don't call from the SB without very good hands

[clutch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not pushing the KTs is horrible, in my opinion. The ATo is closer, and the KQo will be called for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

The KT push is almost certainly very -EV from an ICM standpoint. Remember the Bigstack is in the blind and will call quite liberally getting better than 2-1. The only question is if this is a time to throw ICM out the window.

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran it through SNGPT and it comes out as a clear push. Same with KQo. Those are the only spots I see where you may have been able to make a move.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not pushing the KTs is horrible, in my opinion. The ATo is closer, and the KQo will be called for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

The KT push is almost certainly very -EV from an ICM standpoint. Remember the Bigstack is in the blind and will call quite liberally getting better than 2-1. The only question is if this is a time to throw ICM out the window.

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran it through SNGPT and it comes out as a clear push. Same with KQo. Those are the only spots I see where you may have been able to make a move.

[/ QUOTE ]

From SNGPT:
The KQ hand with the BB calling anytwo yeilds an EV of -3.1% not exactly what I would call a clear push.

The KT hand comes down to whether the BB will call as often as he should give the pot odds he is getting. If he will call with only Any Pair/Any Ace any Broadway then it is basically breakeven ICM-wise which is good enough for me in a spot like this. But that range has him calling about 20% of the time and I just don't see this guy folding 4 times out of 5. Certainly looking back on it, it was probably my best chance to do something.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I ran it through SNGPT and it comes out as a clear push.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is becoming my new pet peeve. if you don't say range you entered, this is as useful as saying "my calculator says it's a push."