to value bet or not to value bet that is the question

[badbill7]

To start with mp2is a 71/6/5.33 so the question is do i just keep capping this guy no matter what the board is or do i stop at some time and slow down. run into this often enough but havent found right formula. Is it as simple as bet bet bet and win or lose alot depending on luck. I feel like i should bet the living crap out of these guys.



Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Button folds, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Hero calls.

[hobbsmann]

If those are that guys stats over a decent sample size than I'd like to see you get more bets in. You can either 3-bet the turn, call a cap and c/c the river (obviously betting the river if not capped on the turn) or call the turn raise and bet/call the river.

That turn would scare the hell outta me, and especially that turn raise. Even though his stats are like that...I don't think he's a "maniac" b/c of the low PFR. I'd put him on the 9 and I would consider myself beat. But then again I might be weaker than others. If he had a set, he probably woulda reraised flop, so not much chance there. He could have an overpair, which would be good. He could be bluffing, representing a 9, maybe he had mid pair or a small pp (I doubt a 75%-er would be clever enough to try this one though). And lastly he could be a maniac, betting the bejesus out of almost nothing for no particular reason at all. But the way this was played and with that many ppl in the pot, I'd put someone, and most likely him, on a 9. I'd call down.

[badbill7]

Quote:That turn would scare the hell outta me, and especially that turn raise. Even though his stats are like that...I don't think he's a "maniac" b/c of the low PFR. I'd put him on the 9 and I would consider myself beat. But then again I might be weaker than others. If he had a set, he probably woulda reraised flop, so not much chance there. He could have an overpair, which would be good. Lastly he could be bluffing, representing a 9, maybe he had mid pair or a small pp. But the way this was played and with that many ppl in the pot, I'd put someone, and most likely him, on a 9. I'd call down.

After i changed my underwear i put my thinking cap on and while this guy isnt a true maniac preflop his 5.5 post aggresion rating is very high and i have seen him raise turn many a time with not much.

[QTip]

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71/6/5.33

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I'd be interested to know how many hands this is over. Having that AF with that vpip doesn't even seem possible over a decent sample size. I'd go 1 more on turn here before I calm down.

[badbill7]

not great sample but decent 150 hands i should have bet this guy almost blind with the stuff he has raised with as it stands he called thatt with bottom pair

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
not great sample but decent 150 hands i should have bet this guy almost blind with the stuff he has raised with as it stands he called thatt with bottom pair

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man...yeah...I go to town with this one then.

seeing his went to showdown percentage would help clarify exactly what his AF means