A hand against Cnfzzd...QTs vs ??...

[thirddan]

Party 3/6 10 handed...

Hero is UTG+1 with Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG+2 is Cnfzzd

Preflop: Hero open limps, Cnfzzd raises, LP coldcalls, Hero calls...

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 7SB, no spade)

What is Hero's plan for this hand?

[DeathDonkey]

How about check/calling the flop, betting the turn and folding to a raise?

-DeathDonkey

[EliteNinja]

bet the flop, call a raise
bet the turn, fold to a raise.
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[EliteNinja]

[ QUOTE ]
bet the flop, call a raise
bet the turn, fold to a raise.
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't see it was vs. Cnfzzd.

Fold to his reraise preflop...kidding.

Ok, seriously, maybe checkfolding the flop wouldn't be a bad move. Cnfzzd pwnz, so give him respect.

[nubs]

I think most of the time you are behind here. Even against a reasonably large range of hands you are only leading KQ, KJ, and 99. If you do a stop and go you are likely to be called down by JJ-KK. I dont know where I'm going with this, are you ahead often enough to go to a showdown? I don't believe so but maybe a math whiz could tell me otherwise.

[AngryCola]

I would check/fold this flop against a good player.
Add on to that the other player yet to act, and I'm not seeing a good situation here.

But I probably wouldn't have open-limped with QTs to begin with. :shrug:

[Chris Daddy Cool]

ADDED AT THE END: Mind you this is late at night and not properly thought out properly, and likely full of logical and mathematical errors as I haven't even proof-read what I wrote. So I don't even know if this makes any coherrent sense at all and could be a bunch of ramble.


you're ahead of KQ, KJs, QJs, 99 and maybe some other hands if confuzzed is particularily aggressive, but lets just stick with this for now.

For those interested with math, this isn't terribly relevent to the hand, but i found it interesting none the less.

Behind AA, AK, AQ, AJ, ATs, KK, QQ, JJ, TT.

Hands you beat
KQ - 12 combos - 8 outs against you
KJs - 4 combos - 9 outs agaisnt you
QJs - 12 combos - 9 outs against you
99 - 6 combos - 2 outs against you
-------------------------------------

Thus there are 34 combos you beat that have a combined 252 outs, which averages out to 7.41 outs against you, so clearly if you're ahead and would like to see him fold most holdings here.

hands you're behind
(note however for the Ax hands, you do have runner runner quad outs, but we'll just ignore that)

AA - 1 combo - 0 outs
AK - 8 combos - 0 outs
AQ - 6 combos - 0 outs
AJ - 8 combos - 0 outs
ATs - 1 combo - 0 outs
KK - 6 combos - 2 outs
QQ - 3 combos - 2 outs
JJ - 6 combos - 5 outs
TT - 1 combo - 0 outs
------------------------------

so you have 40 combos here with a combined 48 outs, averaging out to a weighted 1.2 outs against you.

so clearly when you're behind you're getting crushed here.

So to sum it up.
You're beating 34 combos here (with 7.41 weighted outs against you) and you're getting crushed by 40 combinations here (with you having 1.2 outs here).

so your hand is good 46% of the time here and 54% it isn't. and remember of that 46% you'll be up against 7.41 outs which is roughly a litlte less than an OESD agaisnt you, meaning you're about 2.35-1 to stay atop with the best hand here. The problem is you're behind most of the time here, but at the same time when you are ahead you'd like your opponent to fold. so theres no real no way to get value or protect your hand and some instances that you'd end up folding the best hand anyways.

with a 3 way pot and the blinds folding there 7 small bets in the pot. There aren't that many holdings LP can have that cna beat you, because if we run another set of hands for him, he'd have to have a broadway combination to beat you, which are actually confuzzed's most likely holding as well. so we can assume a lower pp or some suited naked broadway, like K7s or something. so we don't actually worry about protecting our hand from him. he's drawing to a runner runner gutshot or 3 outer at best.

So lets see your options here:

KK, QQ, and JJ will never fold here no matter what you do. The fact that you limped preflop and that there's two aces already on the board should convince confuzzed enough to at least see a showdown with these hands.

If you bet, KQ, KJ and QJ will likely not fold here because he will be suspicious that an A wouldnt go for a checkraise and that betting into him looks terribly weak and you could potentially be raised here which would be very bad and could cause you to fold the best hand. Whether or not confuzzed would bet the turn or not with KQ, KJ or QJ is an interesting topic too. once he raises your flop bet and you call, he can narrow your hands down pretty easily, a suited T-broadway combination or a weak ace.

With a T-broadway combination it will be difficult for you to call a turn bet. By the turn there will be 5.5 big bets and if he bets that makes it 6.5 which won't be enough to draw to anything and it would be hard for you to think he'd bet unimproved broadway cards there on the turn as well, so it has perfect folding equity because you *should* fold enough times to make his bet correct.
So what should you do if you bet the flop. he raises and then bets the turn on a blank?

Remember KQ, KJ and QJ only make up 28 of the 74 possible combinations anyways but you'd like to get him to fold those hands at this point so you can consider checkraising the turn. But hat won't work enough to make it profitable. Remember, he won't fold KK, QQ, and JJ and its not entirely certain he should fold the broadway cards either because there are roughly 14 ace combiations you can have here (A9s-A2s maybe less if you fold A6s-A2s UTG) and he's drawing to 8.57 outs with the broadways against your likely T-broadway combination getting 8:1 on your turn c/r and he'll certainly call if he hits getting 9:1 but fold if he misses. oh yea, don't forget the times he actually has a real hand where he'll simply call you down with KK-JJ and 3-bet you with an A.

So yea, in short, no checkraising the turn.

So remember, he has 34 combiations that you beat and 40 combinations that you don't beat. so on pure pot odds alone you should call his turn bet getting 6.5-1. even if confuzzed only bet the 34 combinations 25% (which I think he easily would) of the time you should call. and generally at that point at the river you should call a river bet as well getting 8.5-1 unless you knew he'd check behind less than 20% of the time with unimproved overs.

so bet-call, check-call, check-call sounds about right in that sense.

So what if you lead the flop and he doesn't raise? Then you simply keep on betting unless a K or J falls off. He's got broadways enough of the time to warrant betting, but what happens if he raises the turn? This is consistent with an Ace and its pretty hard to pull off a delay bluff like that, so you'd probably have to fold. Remember he'll only have a hand that you beat 46% of the time here and he'd have to be bluffing a good amount of times on a turn raise for you to call.

But what if you get raised on the river? this is also consistent of an A as well. However it is more likely than it would be on the turn to be a bluff imo. A missed broadway will raise the river a fair amount of time. So if you get raised on the river in this spot, he's either got you or is bluffing. Depending on confuzzed's bluffing frequency you should act accordingly, but it usually leads to folds.

So what about checkraising the flop?

He won't fold KK-JJ and he'll call with broadways getting 10-1 (assuming the LP folds). He might fold 99 though. Getting 5.5-1 on a turn call, I still don't think confuzzed would fold getting potentially 8.57 outs. Sure you represented an A, but that doesn't mean he has to believe you. Even if you do have an A he still has 4 clean outs, so it'll weigh down to 6 or 7 outs which he'd be correct to call a turn bet, but of course it'd be correct for you to bet as well. If he calls you down at this point you can narrow his holdings to two things, the broadways, where you'd simply check fold if an K or J fell or he's calling down with KK,QQ,JJ. Broadways: 28 combinations. KK-JJ 15 combinations. So you'd simply bet until you meet resistance.

So what if he raises the turn? You'd fold because unless confuzzed is capable of raising his broadways which he has 7.4 outs agaisnt you anyways, you're going to be up agaisnt an A fairly often (or quite possibly KK-JJ).

So take a step back. What if he 3-bets your flop checkraise? Again same scenerio, unless he's capable of doing it with the braodways, you should fold.

So yea that was waaaaaaaaaay easier to write and understand wasn't it?

What about simply check-calling the whole way down?

This is certainly feasible but puts you in difficult spots mainly because he will value bet you with impunity without you having a good line on his hand or your hand and will take free cards with impunity as well you need to be protecting it.

So breakdown, which line is best?

Betting the flop will lead to you facing a tough calldown because you will get raised so frequently or potentially bluff raised more frequently as well. and it doesn't really make your life any easier.

checkcalling will cost the cheapest, but will also make you win the bare mininum if you're ahead and you're prone to giveing too many free cards.

checkraising the flop will get you value on your hand when you're good, potentially fold out the hands you want out and costs you essentially the same to call down anyways if you're up against KK-JJ, but the flop 3-bet or turn raise is much less likely to be a bluff. So i vote for this as the best line.

What say you guys?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

haha i just wanted somebody to resond to my response cuz its so damn long i'd feel like it was wasted if nobody said anything.

yea i'm lame.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
So what if you lead the flop and he doesn't raise? Then you simply keep on betting unless a K or J falls off. He's got broadways enough of the time to warrant betting, but what happens if he raises the turn? This is consistent with an Ace and its pretty hard to pull off a delay bluff like that, so you'd probably have to fold. Remember he'll only have a hand that you beat 46% of the time here and he'd have to be bluffing a good amount of times on a turn raise for you to call.

But what if you get raised on the river? this is also consistent of an A as well. However it is more likely than it would be on the turn to be a bluff imo. A missed broadway will raise the river a fair amount of time. So if you get raised on the river in this spot, he's either got you or is bluffing. Depending on confuzzed's bluffing frequency you should act accordingly, but it usually leads to folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you lead the flop/turn and are not raised, shouldn't he check-call the river to prevent or possibly induce a bluff? what worse hand will call his river bet?

[Nate tha' Great]

Chris,

Your math is off as you're giving 12 combos to QJs when in fact there are only 3. I also don't know that this opponent is going to raise QJs to begin with.

Honestly I think this is probably a check-fold on the flop. The next best line is probably to peel a card and hope that the opponent checks behind.