Flush Draw...A4o in BB...

thirddan · #1 02-09-2005, 12:40 AM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

MP is LA-P - VPIP 60 PFR 9
SB is LP-P, gets overaggro with mediocre hands postflop, im not worried about him having a monster here...

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP3 folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, MP1 raises, SB 3-bets, Hero calls, MP1 caps, SB calls, Hero calls.

Comments?

adamstewart · #2 02-09-2005, 01:01 AM

Calling the flop is "okay", I guess.

You're getting 6:1 money and *if* we give you full outs for your three Aces, two 4's, and 1.5 for the backdoor flush. That only gives you 6.5 outs (you need 7), but I'm sure the implied odds can make up the difference.

On the turn:

When SB bets out, calling is *borderline* depending on whether or not you think MP1 will raise behind you (as he did [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]).

When it's TWO bets back to you, you're getting 4.75:1 money for your draw. BUT, given the action, MP1 is likely gonna cap behind you. This translates more into 12.5:3 (=4.17:1) money - which is just above the 4:1 odds required to call. So it's okay.

FURTEHR, if you make your flush, you'll have the implied odds to make this a more profitable call. (As long the river is not the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], in which case you have to watch out for a boat!)

In summary, I think most of your plays were borderline, but I think all of them were actually +EV.

Overall, I can't find much flaw in the way you played it, except that if you knew MP1 was likely to raise the turn behind you, you shoulda folded. If he just surprised you, so be it.

Just my thoughts...

Adam

thirddan · #3 02-09-2005, 01:05 AM

is it really wrong to call even if i know that MP will raise the turn 100% of the time?

adamstewart · #4 02-09-2005, 01:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
is it really wrong to call even if i know that MP will raise the turn 100% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

I look at it this way:

Going into the turn, the pot is 3.5 BB's. There are two other players potentially contributing additional money to the pot.

(1) If both call, and neither raise, you're getting 3.5 + 2 = 5.5 BB's to your 1 BB to call. (5.5:1 money)

(2) If it's raised once and the other simply calls, you're getting 3.5 + 4 = 7.5 BB's to your 2 BB's to call (3.75:1 money).

(3) If it's 3-bet...yadda, yadda.... 9.5:3 (3.2:1 money)

(4) If it's capped..yadda, yadda ..... 11.5:4 (2.88:1 money).

ONLY SITUATION #1 IS +EV FOR YOUR 4:1 DRAW. So, yes, it is incorrect to call the turn if you *know* MP1 will raise behind you.

Note: this assumes you *know* how the action will develop on the turn before you actually play it.

The calculation's I worked out in my first post are different. They do not account for this as you have already put in 1 BB when the action is 2 BB's back to you, with the probability that it will be capped.

See the difference? (This is why if there's a great chance MP1 will raise behind you on the turn, you should fold.

Adam

thirddan · #5 02-09-2005, 02:18 AM

hmmm...your math is right if you don't account for the river betting round...if i make my flush i will probably get 2 more BB's and possibly more if SB has something like KQ/KJ with a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (or they might even call down with a K)...

adamstewart · #6 02-09-2005, 02:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
hmmm...your math is right if you don't account for the river betting round...if i make my flush i will probably get 2 more BB's and possibly more if SB has something like KQ/KJ with a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (or they might even call down with a K)...

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, to simplify things I didn't account for implied odds on the river. However, situations #3 and #4 call for a great deal of implied oddsd to be made up for - I'm not sure you make it up that often on a 4-flush board.

Adam

thirddan · #7 02-09-2005, 02:41 AM

youre right, the implied odds on a 4 flush board are pretty crappy, i can't really expect more than 2/3 bets to go in on the river, where as a 2 card flush i could probably get between 3-6 on the river...

It just feels quite wrong to fold the nut flush draw on the turn...

I would also like to hear other players comments...

thirddan · #8 02-09-2005, 08:02 PM

b