Q8

[Brom]

What if he has KQ? I'm not actually trying to be a nit or anything, but what was your read on him? What hand range did you give him?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

yes he could have KQ of course and that would not be good obviously.

but you're talking about one hand combination out of many.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
yes he could have KQ of course and that would not be good obviously.

but you're talking about one hand combination out of many.

[/ QUOTE ]

but we are not talking about one hand combo, we are talking about 3 hand combos. You have no reason to believe that the first player who bet into the PFR is going to fold. You have no reason to believe the raiser is going to fold. You KNOW that the 3bettor won't fold. OK, so what are your hand ranges for all 3 players, and will the guys who checked fold? KQ could be your 2bettor, a set could be your open bettor, QJ, etc, etc. I really don't think my Q out is good, I KNOW my 8 is no good, and quite a few Js like this flop enough to bet/2bet/3bet/call. I'm not worst-case scenerio'ing this, I'm just saying that against the strength shown, I'm giving myself 3-4 outs to a hand that isn't the nuts and to which there are many redraws. That's not good enough even in this nice pot to get me to call 3bets. I'm not putting in 4bets in the amusing hope to get LIMIT players to FOLD on the FLOP!!! or to secure a free card which I probably won't get as 3players have shown some fondness for their hands.

[GuyOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yes he could have KQ of course and that would not be good obviously.

but you're talking about one hand combination out of many.

[/ QUOTE ]

but we are not talking about one hand combo, we are talking about 3 hand combos. You have no reason to believe that the first player who bet into the PFR is going to fold. You have no reason to believe the raiser is going to fold. You KNOW that the 3bettor won't fold. OK, so what are your hand ranges for all 3 players, and will the guys who checked fold? KQ could be your 2bettor, a set could be your open bettor, QJ, etc, etc. I really don't think my Q out is good, I KNOW my 8 is no good, and quite a few Js like this flop enough to bet/2bet/3bet/call. I'm not worst-case scenerio'ing this, I'm just saying that against the strength shown, I'm giving myself 3-4 outs to a hand that isn't the nuts and to which there are many redraws. That's not good enough even in this nice pot to get me to call 3bets. I'm not putting in 4bets in the amusing hope to get LIMIT players to FOLD on the FLOP!!! or to secure a free card which I probably won't get as 3players have shown some fondness for their hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two words: Backdoor flush.

GoT

[CardSharpCook]

yes, we have a 4% shot at the 3rd nut flush. That is worth an out if it is the nut flush and there is no reason to believe that trips don't exist. As is, I'll take 3/4 an out for my BDF.

[GuyOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
yes, we have a 4% shot at the 3rd nut flush. That is worth an out if it is the nut flush and there is no reason to believe that trips don't exist. As is, I'll take 3/4 an out for my BDF.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's actually worth ~1.9 outs if it's fully clean. I'd give it ~1.6 here.

GoT

[CardSharpCook]

10/47 * 10/46 = 4.6%. That is the same as one out on the flop.