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#41
12-07-2005, 02:31 PM
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results
SB had Ad9s, and UTG had 8cTc. I suspect more than a few people figured that out from reading the betting action though.
SB dragged the pot. 
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#42
12-07-2005, 03:12 PM
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Re: results
[ QUOTE ]
SB had Ad9s, and UTG had 8cTc. I suspect more than a few people figured that out from reading the betting action though. SB dragged the pot. [/ QUOTE ] What do you estimate the chance of T8s folding to your flop raise was?
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#43
12-07-2005, 04:04 PM
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Re: results
[ QUOTE ]
Quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SB had Ad9s, and UTG had 8cTc. I suspect more than a few people figured that out from reading the betting action though. SB dragged the pot. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What do you estimate the chance of T8s folding to your flop raise was? [/ QUOTE ] Maybe five percent. I saw him go to the river with ace high and call a final bet. Also he went to the river with middle pair another time. His WTSD was 42%
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#44
12-07-2005, 06:38 PM
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Re: Folding the flop for one bet is cool
i haven't even read this thread but i stopped here when i saw "all it takes is for someone to have and another guy to have A4 and another guy to have KT and poof, hero is drawing dead" because... that's just so amazingly false I can't even describe it.
Folding this flop is horrible. Now i'll read.
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#45
12-07-2005, 07:04 PM
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Re: Folding the flop for one bet is cool
you're so wrong on this.
(a) you probably don't have the flop bettor beaten. at least not yet. (b) with opponents behind you, it's just as likely you actually have better odds than your immediate odds as it is you'll face worse odds if someone raises (c) even if someone raises, you have sufficient equity to continue, rather easily (d) your opponents most likely hands (to bet, call, or raise behind with) you have redraws against. possibly even cards that improve their hands, but give you a better hand (e) if a J comes off your continuation will be depend on the actions (f) if a spade comes off your equity is huge and continuing is easy
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#46
12-07-2005, 07:05 PM
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Re: Folding the flop for one bet is cool
yup.
but even if you didn't have 3 backdoor draws you should have come to the same conclusion.
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#47
12-07-2005, 07:07 PM
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Re: Folding the flop for one bet is cool
it's not time to move on.
you're not making a one small bet mistake. you're making a POT mistake whenever you fold what would turn out to be the winning hand. in other words, folding this flop is not only grossly incorrect, but it is a HUGE mistake that will cost you a LOT of money in both the short and long term. making incorrect folds with this much equity in large pots is a terrible error.
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#48
12-07-2005, 07:08 PM
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Re: Folding the flop for one bet is cool
[ QUOTE ]
Slowplaying sucks. [/ QUOTE ] No it doesn't. Here it does.
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#49
12-07-2005, 07:09 PM
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Re: Folding the flop for one bet is cool
[ QUOTE ]
This is a standard flop fold IMO [/ QUOTE ] You're a losing player.
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#50
12-07-2005, 08:07 PM
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Re: Folding the flop for one bet is cool
I agree with the strategy suggestion but I don't think with the analysis of the cost of the mistake.
Isn't it better to consider the cost of our mistake as a combination of the times we are behind and save money by folding and the times we are ahead and we lose the pot. The mistake isn't the whole pot but some fraction thereof based on how often we're good (and likely to be good at the end) as well as how many more bets on average we're losing when we continue and lose, etc. But "losing the entire pot" as a mistake is only the case if you would always finish with the best hand in a given situation right?
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