trick or treat ? how scary is this hand?

[redbeard]

party 3/6 6 max:
preflop:
one fold, utg+1 raises, two folds, hero in sb w Ah Ac three bets, bb calls, utg+1 caps, hero calls, bb calls pot: 12sb.

flop: Ad 6c 7s
hero bets, bb raises, utg+1 reraises, hero caps, bb calls, utg+1 calls pot: 24sb

turn: 4s
hero bets, bb raises, utg+1 three bets, hero caps, bb calls, utg+1 calls. pot: 24bb
(at this point, i capped the turn given the preflop action believing bb to have a set and utg+1 to be overplaying KK or possibly a set too, or maybe the best chance is AKs that flopped top pair and picked up a flush draw.)

river:Js (BOO!) (i'm scared)
hero checks, bb bets, utg+1 calls (have i dodged the runner-runner flush draw or does the bb have it? oh well, its only one bet and with a pot of 26bb i gotta call) hero calls.

RESULTS: bb and utg+1 split the pot w/: 8 5 off (wtf!)

QUESTION: if the river had gone hero check, bb bet, utg+1 raise is this a clear fold? what if the river had been the Jd instead? (i think i would have had to lead out the river and called any raises in that case). Let me know what you think.

Anyway Happy Holloween.

[Argus]

Three notes:
1) Do include reads.
2) Don't include results.
3) Nobody cares about the bad beat you took.

Fearing the runner runner flush is a bit silly, and while it's not impossible, it's not particularly likely either. From the action I would guess that UTG+1 is likely on 77, AK, or Axs (which would give him the runner runner flush you fear). My hand reading skills just weren't good enough to anticipate the results, but I'm working on it. BB could be on any sort of two pair or underset based on the play, as well as the unlikely straight.

Considering the strength of your hand and the number of likely hands that beat you I recommend betting the river again. If it comes back 3-bet to you, you should probably cap it. You have top set, and these players don't seem especially bright - they could be overplaying many other hands that you beat.

[Lurker4]

I bet the river, and checkraise if I had checked the river. If these two will play 85o PF and on the flop like this, they will play 77/66/76/A7/Ax/worse like this as well.

[redbeard]

sorry about the lack of reads. this was my second hand at the table and i sat there because the button was a major monkey of mine. this was my second hand at the table and my monkey wasn't in the hand and i had absolutely zero reads on the opponents in the hand. i guess i should have said that my main objective here was to see how everyone would have played the river. sorry i included the results. i'm sure everyone has taken beats equally as bad. i just wanted to get people's input on the river and given the results, was this something i should have foreseen. again thanks for any input.

[cartman]

Hi Redbeard,

The way the action had gone so far in the hand, the only cards that should have concerned you on the river would be a 6 or a 7. The only two plausible monsters under the bed scenarios are the one you described in which one of them as A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and a far less likely one in which BB has 85s, but that should in no way deter you from capping the river. Just be glad there is a 4-bet cap or you could have justifiably lost about a thousand big bets this hand. If the river hadn't have been a spade I would have had to replace my mouse at least twice due to twice due to excessive wear before I stopped raising.

Checking the river is horrible here. It is not a question of whether someone could have just made a flush"? It is a question of GIVEN THE PREVIOUS ACTION IN THE HAND TO THIS POINT, is it possible that someone just made a flush. It is very important not to let a scare card on the river keep you from betting for value unless you think it is sufficiently likely to have beaten you to warrant checking.

I realize your post is not a whine about the bad beat, but the reason not to post results is so that they don't influence the responses to the post. Basically it keeps the readers from being able to properly put themselves in your shoes because they have additional information that you didn't have at the time you played the hand.

Cartman