Raising overcards on the flop to clean up our outs+get a free card

[Walker]

#1
Great 4-8 game. 7 limpers to me in the CO K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img](UTG, UTG+1 are tight and known to limp with AJ, AQ, KQ). I consider raising but opt to limp. Button calls.

9SB Flop:J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Super loose/passive bets in MP3. I raise. Thoughts?

Hand#2
I raise in EP with AK, two CC'ers, loose BB calls. Flop 227 rainbow. Fairly passive BB bets. I raise. Thoughts?

Hand 1: I don't like it. First, pre-flop I'd still raise it. You have excellent position with a great hand. Second, super loose-passive bets into you, and you decide your K-high is worth taking heads up against him? Your raise here is more than likely going to isolate the hand between him, and perhaps one straggler. All you have are two weak draws (overcards and BDSD)!

Hand 2: I don't like it. Your raising won't clean up any outs, you don't have position for a free card play, you don't have any backdoor draws, and the BB was passive, so it's likely he has something here better than your A-high.

[cold_cash]

Hand 1 - Will this raise get you heads up? Will hands like A3 or AQ or 77 fold?

Hand 2 - I doubt you have the best hand and I doubt anyone's folding a better one behind you.

[Walker]

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Hand 1 - Will this raise get you heads up?

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With the exception of the donk on the button (super duper loose/passive) who's calling with any overcard or backdoor draw, I think it's very very likely

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Will hands like A3 or AQ or 77 fold?

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I think so.

[Walker]

Clearly I don't know my ass from my face when it comes to situations like this. If one of the more experienced posters on this board could analyse and show the thought process that should go on when playing this hand, I would be most obliged.

[GrunchCan]

Warning: Out of practice in limit. Fairly difficult hands.

Hand 1: There are 3 things that makes raising a flop with just overcards a +EV play:

1) If you might have the best hand. In this case, when a passive opponent leads a raggy, J-high flop, it's really unlikely that K-high is best here.

2) If your raise might give you some folding equity. See my post yesterday about fold equity & bluffing for general discussion. The salient point in this hand is whether or not you are able to fold a better hand. I think the pot is big enough and your opponents are loose enough to make folding a better hand almost impossible here.

3) If your raise may win you a free card. There's one really important thing about raising for a free card that you have to realize: the chance to win a free card is never enough of a reason to raise. There has to be some other reason, and the free card issue just swings your decision. If you dont have the best hand (or at least better than, erm... better than the bettor's) and you can't fold a better hand, you can't raise even if you think you'll get a free card.

In this case, I don't think we can raise these overcards. We can draw to the turn however becasue the pot is large. In most cases, we'll probably be check-folding the turn.

[GrunchCan]

Hand 2: This is a little different. Board came paired & BB is trying to represent trips by betting. He might have trips, but wouldn't most opponents check-raise here with trips or wait for the turn to raise? If he doesn't have trips he may have just 2-pair, in which case you're drawing to 6 outs. There is also a chance that he just has overcards & is trying to scare you in to folding. Moreover, if you raise you could get the CCers who missed to fold since they are afraid of trips themselves. I'd consider raising here.

small stakes hold em by ed miller has an excellent section on this imo. I couldn't explain it well without quoting from the book, but basically you have to take a ton of factors(wether or not you have other outs (backdoor flush/straight draws), how coordinated the board is, how many people are in the pot, how much money in the pot, wether or not it will get you a free card, etc etc etc.) and use them all together to determine if its worth a raise on the flop.

when i first read about all this crap i have to pay attention to it went way over my head, but the more i play the more i'm able to put all of these factors into account like second nature

[GrunchCan]

In my opinion, playing whiffed overcards is one of the most difficult spots in limit hold'em.

[Walker]

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Hand 1:

1) If you might have the best hand. In this case, when a passive opponent leads a raggy, J-high flop, it's really unlikely that K-high is best here.

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Yeah, she has at least a Jack here.
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2) If your raise might give you some folding equity. See my post yesterday about fold equity & bluffing for general discussion. The salient point in this hand is whether or not you are able to fold a better hand. I think the pot is big enough and your opponents are loose enough to make folding a better hand almost impossible here.

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Yep, she's taking this one to showdown. Med. pp's might fold but that doesn't help me knowing the better has at least a jack.


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3) If your raise may win you a free card. There's one really important thing about raising for a free card that you have to realize: the chance to win a free card is never enough of a reason to raise. There has to be some other reason, and the free card issue just swings your decision. If you dont have the best hand (or at least better than, erm... better than the bettor's) and you can't fold a better hand, you can't raise even if you think you'll get a free card.

In this case, I don't think we can raise these overcards. We can draw to the turn however becasue the pot is large. In most cases, we'll probably be check-folding the turn.

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What about trying to fold hands like AQ,A3/K3/Q3,A5/K5/Q5, gutshots, and suited aces which have ~4.5 outs against us assuming we get to see the river for free? Unless someone has or makes two pair or better, I think we're getting the freecard against these players pretty much every time.

Edit: Add KQ