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#11
10-23-2005, 02:13 PM
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Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
[ QUOTE ]
This is kind of irrelevent but the funny thing about this is that BJ can be +EV. You sign up under an affiliate who is your accomplice. Now you bet $200 (I'll just assume 2 outcomes for simplicity's sake i.e. ignoring splitting, doubling dow so the EV is 0.49*$200-0.51*$160 = $16.4 where I assumed 2% house edge. So affiliates should tell all their players to do it! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Yeah I was tryign to figure this out too, there's gotta be some flaw that we're not seeing. Something to do with the fact that it only pays out once per month or something. If a previous month results in a negative MGR does that take away from a new month? It would have to, otherwise Party really would be opening itself to scams like this. 
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#12
10-23-2005, 02:18 PM
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Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
crazy... the affiliate participates in wins and losses... if you win $200, it costs the affiliate $40. (ie they are partners, if you win, you've won $160 from Party and $40 from the affiliate; and if you lose, you've lost $160 to Party and $40 to the affiliate)
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#13
10-23-2005, 02:53 PM
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Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
[ QUOTE ]
crazy... the affiliate participates in wins and losses... if you win $200, it costs the affiliate $40. (ie they are partners, if you win, you've won $160 from Party and $40 from the affiliate; and if you lose, you've lost $160 to Party and $40 to the affiliate) [/ QUOTE ] Where does it say the affiliate covers your wins?
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#14
10-23-2005, 02:59 PM
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Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] crazy... the affiliate participates in wins and losses... if you win $200, it costs the affiliate $40. (ie they are partners, if you win, you've won $160 from Party and $40 from the affiliate; and if you lose, you've lost $160 to Party and $40 to the affiliate) [/ QUOTE ] Where does it say the affiliate covers your wins? [/ QUOTE ] The affiliates are sharing 20% of the revenue, whether it's positive or negative. This is the same way most online casinos calculate their affiliate commissions.
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#15
10-23-2005, 03:07 PM
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Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] crazy... the affiliate participates in wins and losses... if you win $200, it costs the affiliate $40. (ie they are partners, if you win, you've won $160 from Party and $40 from the affiliate; and if you lose, you've lost $160 to Party and $40 to the affiliate) [/ QUOTE ] Where does it say the affiliate covers your wins? [/ QUOTE ] The affiliates are sharing 20% of the revenue, whether it's positive or negative. This is the same way most online casinos calculate their affiliate commissions. [/ QUOTE ] And how does that make it +EV? Doesn't it just reduce the HA by 20%?
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#17
10-23-2005, 04:20 PM
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Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
[ QUOTE ]
Ron... Its not +EV for the player, crazy is... crazy wrong! [/ QUOTE ] It's not crazy, at least in theory. This is a hit-and-run with potential to be +EV. Player signs up for rakeback with an accomplice who is a new (sham) affiliate. Case 1): Player wins [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]. Affiliate account goes negative but affiliate goes out of business and doesn't have to pay. Player gets to keep 100% of his win. Case 2): Player loses. Affiliate does enough real business to make it look legit and then the accomplices recover 20% of their loss. Important variation: Don't use an accomplice. Just sting a real rakeback affiliate.
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#18
10-23-2005, 05:38 PM
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Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Ron... Its not +EV for the player, crazy is... crazy wrong! [/ QUOTE ] It's not crazy, at least in theory. This is a hit-and-run with potential to be +EV. Player signs up for rakeback with an accomplice who is a new (sham) affiliate. Case 1): Player wins [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]. Affiliate account goes negative but affiliate goes out of business and doesn't have to pay. Player gets to keep 100% of his win. Case 2): Player loses. Affiliate does enough real business to make it look legit and then the accomplices recover 20% of their loss. Important variation: Don't use an accomplice. Just sting a real rakeback affiliate. [/ QUOTE ] This is why MGR should be based on expectation and not actual profits/losses.
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#19
10-23-2005, 08:14 PM
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Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
Ron...
Its not +EV for the player, crazy is... crazy wrong! It is if you partner with an affiliate who is willing to pay you 20% back if you lose. So odds of winning $200 is 0.49, odds of losing is 0.51 WITH receiving $40 back your affiliate if you lose. EV = 0.49*$200-0.51*($200)-0.51*$200+0.49*$40
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#20
10-23-2005, 11:36 PM
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Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
Crazy,
The EV of Player + Friend Affiliate = (0.49*$160) - (0.51*$160)= -$3.2 instead of EV of non-affiliated player = (0.49*200) - (0.51*200) = -$4 Why would your friend agree to pay party $40 if you win and pay you $40 if you lose? That's called a no win situation [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] The situation is still -EV... however, if you ARE a blackjack player, an affiliated relationship that you describe (which is in violation of party's affl T&C btw) would reduce your variance!
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