AA, should I keep raising?

apaugust · #1 07-11-2005, 09:29 AM

Reads:
UTG+2 LP-P
Button LA-P
SB LP-P

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, Button calls, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, Hero caps, Button calls, SB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, UTG+2 3-bets, Hero caps, Button calls, SB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (16.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, Button folds, SB calls, UTG+2 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (25.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 31.50 BB

Should I be capping the turn? Any other thoughts?

hicherbie · #2 07-11-2005, 09:32 AM

seems fine to me.

Marquis · #3 07-11-2005, 09:44 AM

If your reads are correct:

Capping the turn would be silly. These passive players really like their hands. I think UTG+2 has 9s full and SB probably has QQ if not some nonsense with a J in it.

On the river, I suppose it's possible that you're up against exactly QQ and KK. Difficult call not closing the action.

crownjules · #4 07-11-2005, 09:44 AM

SBs 3-bet preflop probably means he's got AA-QQ, maybe AK, so it's reasonable to think you're ahead and I would raise all of his bets with this board. UTG+2, however, is a different matter. I don't like his flop call/raise at all, especially when he's passive postflop. The turn 3-bet from him is again bad - two pair or set.

The river is either good or bad for you. If he had two pair from the flop, you just counterfeited him. A call is tough for 2 bets because you don't know for sure if you're facing two-pair or a set, but I would probably call.

Innocentius · #5 07-11-2005, 09:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Should I be capping the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I don't think so. You have a read on UTG+2 as passive postflop, and here he is 3-betting both flop and turn. Most likely he has you beat. Also, since SB is loose, I don't think he's going to fold if its two more to him on the turn.

tiltaholic · #6 07-11-2005, 09:50 AM

so, you have 2 passive players playing very aggressively, and you have an overpair.

i think i'd call the river, only because you may have sucked out on UTG+2's 2 pair. but depending on how passive they are, a river fold wouldn't be bad either.

Dave G. · #7 07-11-2005, 09:52 AM

Yikes. I'm not worried about SB because he 3-bet PF, he could have KK or something like that, and we're obviously not worried about that.

But dude. UTG is LPP? Notice that he call/3-bet the flop. This means he has an absolute monster and he is trapping everyone for bets. He doesn't want to raise right after the SB because he fears losing the field. But when you've all put some bets in, he can trap everyone for more bets with a 3-bet.

This is one of the very rare instances that I would not cap this flop; what can UTG possibly have here that you beat? AA is a nice hand and all, but there is no way in hell you are in front here.

Knowing that he has a monster, I'm folding the turn to SBs bet. Yes, it's very rare that I lay aces down especially on the turn, but you are screwed and you don't have much chance of improving. Edit: Actually, you've got enough odds to call the turn to spike an ace as long as it's not raised behind you.

Notice that he pulled the call/3-bet play AGAIN on the turn. He's screaming "HELLO, I HAVE A MONSTER" and you're ignoring him.

Your coldcall on the river is awful. Call the turn, fold the river UI.

BruinEric · #8 07-11-2005, 11:20 AM

Wow. I missed the call-raise line - duh. I like your thoughts. This might be where I dump AA. Another case would be a 4-flush on the board with a couple opponents and a passive/made hand only bettor.

Though I justify that call (and bleed money) by citing Miller's "if you never folded AA..." advice.

groo · #9 07-11-2005, 12:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your coldcall on the river is awful.

[/ QUOTE ]

I realize I'm most likely wrong here, but with nearly 30BB I'm going to have to cold call here. I'm almost certainly beaten and obviously can't raise, but this is Party .50/1 and I think I win this 1 out of 7 times. The cold call costs me 2BB, folding the (improbable) winner costs me 29.5BB.

As stated, I'm probably wrong here...can someone tell me where?

DCWildcat · #10 07-11-2005, 12:42 PM

I'd agree with calling the river here. SB's play is very erratic here, and I think as a result he'll call and you'll only be facing 2 bets a reasonable percentage of the time (let's say between 20% and 33% of the time). That'll leave you an average of 9.5ish-10ish to 1 on your call. And the chances of you running into stupidity at a .5/1 table on party are much higher than 9 or 10 to 1. Desparation bluffs alone by SB account for that, let alone counterfeiting & general stupidity. Call.