turn play

[UncleSalty]

[ QUOTE ]
the problem with pokerstove is that it enumerates for all cards being seen. we play so well that we're rarely going to see the river.

but whatever:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,613,894 games 4.844 secs 746,055 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.6477 % 45.54% 02.10% { random }
Hand 2: 52.3523 % 50.25% 02.10% { K4o }


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and i think that sb has VERY close to a random hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, which is why I said I disagree that we have a mathmatical equity edge, but that post-flop considerations such as FE and skill advantages are a good point.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm risking 1 sb to win 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

But he's obviously very rarely folding preflop, so we'll need to bet again on the flop. So we're risking 2. We're trying to win the blind we posted plus his SB from completing; so we're fighting for 2.

The 3 biggest points IMO are:
1) the fact Villain is unknown,
2) the fact that if we have an equity edge, it's extremely slight (by shadow's estimate, we're like a 51:49 or 1.04:1 favorite), and
3) the fact that the reward vs. risk is such that we need him to fold a better hand on the flop like half the time. I'd rather check my option and play aggressively when later conditions dicate it than try to push an unknown off a hand to win 2 SBs.