OESD+Flush draw...do you call? - Page 2

#11 12-14-2005, 10:10 PM

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to me, the $9 cold call from BB means one of two things:
-he has a monster like a set and he's being greedy
-he has a draw.

i still think this is a definite push in NL25.

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So I am either behind a set which would have redraw outs against my made str8 or flush, or I am behind a draw that could be dominating my potential made hands. BB is not folding for 4 more. This doesn't seem like an easy call/push to me. If stacks were deeper and SB had led for PSB and BB had called I probably would have raised big/pushed instantly.
Does anybody fold here???

Cosimo · #12 12-14-2005, 11:22 PM

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You have a 42% chance to win this hand

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i'm not sure that's a true statement.

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Indeed. You might note that I qualified this statement later in the same paragraph.

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there is a 42% chance that you will make your straight or flush.

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i think the odds are greater than that.

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oops [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

9 flush outs + 6 straight outs = 15 total outs.

15 outs, 47 turn cards = 31.9. 68.1% that you miss and 32.6% that you hit on the river. Total of 54%.

So, yeah, I was off. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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you could hit two running cards to get an overset.

You would have three-of-a-kind and villain who had a set would now have a full house.

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... but villain might only have two pair or one pair or an overpair ...

My point was, there's ways of winning that don't include hitting the straight or flush. He could be bluffing, he might have you beat but in such a way that one or two magic cards (that aren't str8 or flush cards) would help you win, etc.

The whole gist here is that, with a 54% chance of hitting your straight or flush, that loosely translates into a 54% chance of winning. It's extremely difficult to correct the chance-of-hitting calculation into chance-of-winning since villain's hand is unknown. If you have reads that suggest he has a set, etc, you can plug those into twodimes and get a precise percentage, but ....

So, I take the 54% chance of hitting as a 54% chance of winning. The primary thing here is to decide to call or not, and at this point, OP is looking for 25% or better. It doesn't matter if it's 42% or 54% or 52.7937%; it's definitely greater than 25%.

And I'm not going to pick nits on the 25% [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

wegs the wegs · #13 12-15-2005, 12:08 AM

Push and love it. Heads up against pocket aces you're a 55/45 favorite with an open ended straight flush draw. Against top set you're only a 42/58 dog. Push push push. Against two players already all in if you seriously folded here let me know, I'd love to play you.

I had a similar hand earlier this week and I think it played out pretty well in my favor. Take a look.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (4 handed) converter

UTG ($50)
Hero ($107.70)
SB ($83.30)
BB ($106.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $1.
UTG (poster) raises to $3.5, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold, BB calls $2.50.

Flop: ($11) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $11, Hero calls $11, BB raises to $55, UTG raises all-in to $66 , Hero raises all-in to $103, BB calls all-in with $102.

Turn: ($253) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)

River: ($253) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)

Final Pot: $253

Results in white below: 
BB has 9c Jc (one pair, nines).
UTG has Jd Qs (one pair, queens).
Hero has Js As (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins $253.

#14 12-15-2005, 12:24 AM

Don't think just push : )

#15 12-15-2005, 01:01 AM

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Push and love it. Heads up against pocket aces you're a 55/45 favorite with an open ended straight flush draw. Against top set you're only a 42/58 dog. Push push push. Against two players already all in if you seriously folded here let me know, I'd love to play you.

I had a similar hand earlier this week and I think it played out pretty well in my favor. Take a look.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (4 handed) converter

UTG ($50)
Hero ($107.70)
SB ($83.30)
BB ($106.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $1.
UTG (poster) raises to $3.5, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold, BB calls $2.50.

Flop: ($11) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $11, Hero calls $11, BB raises to $55, UTG raises all-in to $66 , Hero raises all-in to $103, BB calls all-in with $102.

Turn: ($253) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)

River: ($253) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)

Final Pot: $253

Results in white below: 
BB has 9c Jc (one pair, nines).
UTG has Jd Qs (one pair, queens).
Hero has Js As (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins $253. 

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I think your hand is very different. For one you have much deeper stacks, you are drawing to the NUT flush and straight draws, and you ahve more fold equity. Given that I wasn't getting anymore money out of this hand and had zero fold equity, I did fold. I can see how it could be a mistake, but it doesn't seem as cut and dry to me.

LetYouDown · #16 12-15-2005, 02:06 AM

Fold preflop. Stop being loose/passive. As played, obvious flop push.

#17 12-15-2005, 02:10 AM

Ok,

Never mind.. I figured this out...

Hero has 9 hearts that will most likely give him the nuts, and 6 cards to give him the straight (subtracting the hearts).

Pot is at 23.25, and it's 8.9 to call.
So, 1:2.6

Basically, we need to be 27% or better to call here, right?

15 outs with 47 cards left = 31% chance. The extra river card makes it even better. Easy call.

Now, suppose BB didn't call... should hero still call the all-in?

Here's the math for that:
Total pot: 14.35
pot odds: 1:1.6, need 38% chance to call.

Two dimes says:
if he has a set: 40/60
if he has AA/KK: 55/45
if he has AhAx : 50/50
if he has 2pair(QT): 51/48

So, we should STILL be calling here, even without the BB in.
Nice, huh?

booger · #18 12-15-2005, 03:02 AM

you called a decent raise with J9 suited and flopped oesd and flush draw...what were you hoping for JJ9 flop?? push, you have good odds. reload if you lose ..stack chips if u win and go on to the next hand.

#19 12-15-2005, 06:27 AM

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Pot is at 23.25, and it's 8.9 to call.
So, 1:2.6

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Not a big thing, but if we are calling, we might as well raise BB all in for his last 4 dollars. In that case, the pot is 27.25 and you must call 12.9. You're getting 2.11 to 1 and you need a 32.13% chance of winning the hand to call.

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Now, suppose BB didn't call... should hero still call the all-in?

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I think we should be thinking about BB calling because that complicates things.

I think this is definitely a clear flop push, but its not always going to be as pretty as everyone thinks. Up against A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] would lower our equity to 15.17. However, against their ranges of hands, you definitely have enough equity to call.

#20 12-15-2005, 07:11 AM

Limp fold preflop according to the 5/10 rule...