15 turbo interesting JJ bubble hand

#1 11-27-2005, 07:21 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop|saw showdown

BB (t770)
Hero (t740)
Button (t5045)[/b]
SB (t6945)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].


The interesting part is that the BB has been sitting out the whole tourney but even if I fold every hand I still might not make the money because he currently has a little more chips than me. What is your move here? Do you push or try to fold into the money? I will post the results a little later.

#2 11-27-2005, 07:28 AM

Your chances at first and second are really low, and you're guaranteed third if you turn out autofold beacause the blinds hit him before they hit you.

Fold.

tigerite · #3 11-27-2005, 07:57 AM

You'd think so.. but I bubbled the last time someone was on 'away' because he won something like 5 all-ins in a row, including the one against me, which crippled me; this after some absolute arse called with AJo when said 'away' was on 200 at 200/400 and about to hit the blinds, when I had the muppet covered by 1.5k.. but we won't go there.

I think FWIW this is a push..

#4 11-27-2005, 10:28 AM

ok, here are the results. It's worth mentioning that after I busted 1 of the players said "what a terrible push with JJ" I still don't think it was that bad of a push

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop|saw showdown

BB (t770)
Hero (t740)
Button (t5045)
SB (t6945)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises to t740, Button calls t740, 2 folds.

Flop: (t1705) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: (t1705) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t1705) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t1705
Results in white below: 
Hero has Jd Jh (two pair, jacks and fives).
Button has Kh Qh (two pair, queens and fives).
Outcome: Button wins t1705.

tigerite · #5 11-27-2005, 10:34 AM

If you can guarantee the BB will lose his hand by the time the blinds get to him, you can fold.. but I don't see any way you can guarantee that, and if he wins, you're screwed.. or what if he comes back.. so many things can go wrong here.

#6 11-27-2005, 10:47 AM

Bleh, fold reluctantly.

Even if you double through you're probably not going to make 2nd so guarantee yourself a payday.

tigerite · #7 11-27-2005, 10:49 AM

But folding doesn't guarantee him a payday, if he had 1k I would agree, but he's BARELY above the small stack here..

HonchoOverload · #8 11-27-2005, 10:55 AM

I am pushing the crap out of this hand and praying for a call. He had overs and he caught. Big deal. Plenty of times the button will call with A-little, small pair or KJ and you'll probably double through easily. Don't be too results oriented.

I agree with tigerite...I've seen p/fs have an insane run of all-ins so never bank on that working in your favor anyway.

#9 11-27-2005, 10:59 AM

I've never seen someone who sat out from the start make a heroic return. He will surely win the race if the guy doesn't return. Just fold it.

HonchoOverload · #10 11-27-2005, 11:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I've never seen someone who sat out from the start make a heroic return. He will surely win the race if the guy doesn't return. Just fold it.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has maybe 10-12 hands left to make a stand. Hero has to choose one to go with, because he has a shorter stack than the p/fer. You think he's gonna see a better one than JJ to do so with in the next 10-12?