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#1
06-27-2005, 06:54 PM
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shuffle tracking
Any ideas out there about tracking a poker dealer's shuffle?
From what I've observed, most dealers shuffle the same way every time: riffle, riffle, strip (4 sections), riffle, cut. Since I can always see the bottom card or two of the deck when the dealer scoops up the cards, I wondered where that card was most likely to be after the shuffle. Assuming perfect riffles, stipping, and cut, the card would be one of the bottom eight cards of the deck, taking it out of play. However, a shallow cut might put it at the top and probably in someone's hand, again, out of play. Knowing this, I'm just wondering if anyone knows enough about shuffle tracking to determine the probability of perfect riffles and stipping, and if it is significant enough to alter my strategy. e.g., If my draw includes the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and I saw it at the bottom of the deck, pre-shuffle, should I remove that as an out, count it as half, three-quarters? Any thoughts? Thanks. 
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#3
06-27-2005, 08:49 PM
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Re: shuffle tracking
It is possible to follow cards through the shuffle of a sloppy dealer.
A sloppy dealer doesn't 'wash' the cards between hands or only does a perfunctory job of it. Consider the way the cards are picked up after the hand. Usually the last hand(s) in are the ones that connected best with the board. This will often mean that straights and flushes are more likely than usual at a table with a sloppy dealer. This is not something you can rely on, but you should remind the dealer to wash the cards. As far as where the cards actually end up, just do a few shuffles yourself with the card(s) you want to track reversed. It will be easy to see where they go. As the other poster pointed out, though, focus more on your game. Don't put too much stock in this kind of thing unless you are going to study magic or blackjack.
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#4
06-27-2005, 08:50 PM
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Re: shuffle tracking
[ QUOTE ]
Even if there are patterns they will be almost impossible to pick up. [/ QUOTE ] This is absolutely not true. Just because you can't do it, doesn't mean that no one else can. [ QUOTE ] Focus your energy on studying the players and playing your best game. [/ QUOTE ] This is absolutely right.
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#5
06-27-2005, 10:30 PM
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Re: shuffle tracking
When you identify a bad or lazy dealer, you can often track cards with little or no work. Often a dealer will show the bottom card(s) when picking up the deck, then leave them at the bottom through the shuffles and strips. In a ten-handed game, twenty cards will be dealt the players, and eight more will be used for the board and burns. Watch the cut and guess if the bottom card is put in the top 28. If it is, it's in play, most likely on the board. If not, it's out of play.
Different dealers show the bottom cards to different seats: some to the 3 and 4 seats; some to the 7 and 8; some to the whole far side of the table. When a dealer comes into the box who shows cards away from you, look to see which players are tracking. It's good information to have. Also, in the case of egregiously bad dealers, look for patterns in the flop relating to cards shown in the previous hands. You can't find this often, but when you do, it will repeat. Dealers get so broken in that they repeat their moves like clockwork. As I say, this can all be done with little or no effort; it won't take away from any other aspects of your game; it's sheer laziness not to do it. Shufflemaster is in the process of ending all this happy BS.
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#6
06-28-2005, 03:28 AM
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Re: shuffle tracking
On the deal after a full house or quads is made, a dealer who is a poor shuffler will more likely deal cards that were in the full house or quads. Sometimes this will continue for two or three deals, since the same cards keep making the best hands.
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#7
06-28-2005, 11:04 AM
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Re: shuffle tracking
28th card is river. 26th card is the turn. if you see the bottom card before the cut, supposedly (or maybe with some dealers only) the most likely cut is exactly in half. so the bottom card becomes #26. I haven't played live enough to remember to try to get this to work.
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