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  #21  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:22 PM
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Default Re: Moving Up Is Hard To Do

Which reminds me of a book:

"Zen in the Art of Archery" by Eugen Herrigel

Well worth the time spent reading.

--klez
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  #22  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:22 PM
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Default Re: Moving Up Is Hard To Do

Hey Jax, very nice post. But what about the flip side? If someone is beating a certain level for .5BB/100 over 50K hands, isn't it as likely that their winrate over 50K hands is greater than their "true" winrate, i.e. they are a breakeven/losing player, and moving up levels is probably not what they should be doing?

I know nothing about what type of player badplayer is, but don't think we should just say "short term winrates don't matter". I just don't think that just because someone posts on 2+2 that means we should assume they're a winning player. I think what Aaron wrote above is right on, that you need to be able to adjust to the new level, and basically figure out how to adjust enough that you have an edge over the competition. Maybe badplayer feels that he has a big edge at 1/2 and his results are just variance, who knows.

Hope this wasn't too argumentative or anything, you likely know a lot more about all of the stuff than me, and I think everything you wrote about adjusting to a higher level and strategies to help is great (a lot of my troubles in moving up probably could have been avoided had I read your post a few months ago).
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  #23  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:41 PM
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Default Re: Moving Up Is Hard To Do

[ QUOTE ]
Great post Jax. And also along the lines of Pedigree's post, if playing 20k hands doesn't give you an idea of your winrate how many hands will?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the hard part, as Jax mentions there is so much variance that it is very hard to know where your "true" winrate is from your empirical winrate.

Here is an exerpt from a post by MrWookie from a while back that I thought was really nice:

[ QUOTE ]

My personal metric is, for play at a particular level, to know to within two standard errors (about 98% confidence) that I am a winning player. That is, that my win rate is twice or more as big as the uncertainty of my win rate. To compute the uncertainty of your win rate, take your standard deviation per 100 hands, usually about 15 BB/100, and divide it by the square root of the number of hands you’ve played divided by 100 (the number of 100 hand blocks you’ve played). Playing 20,000 hands with this standard deviation will yield an uncertainty in your win rate of 1.06 BB/100. Thus, you’d need a win rate of 2.12 BB/100 to know with 98% confidence that you were a winning player. Depending on your personal level of boldness or paranoia, you may be satisfied with 84% confidence (uncertainty = win rate) or 99.9% confidence (uncertainty = win rate / 3). Of note is that 20,000 hands at a win rate of 2.12 BB/100 will net you 424 BB, which, combined with the 300 BB you started with, gives you a bankroll sufficient to play at twice the current limit. An interesting side effect of this metric is that players who are truly crushing a particular level will advance more quickly, since they will need fewer hands to reduce their uncertainty to half (or whatever) their win rate, while players winning less are encouraged to stick around longer, hopefully learning new lessons that bring their win rate up along the way.

[/ QUOTE ]
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  #24  
Old 12-30-2005, 06:54 PM
DavidC DavidC is offline
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Default Re: Moving Up Is Hard To Do

[ QUOTE ]
1. you literally let the curent money you are putting into the pot affect your play. In other words, you won't make a slightly +EV move because you don't want to see your money going into the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

According to general gaming theory, depending on your utility of money, it may be worth giving up some portion of EV in an effort to reduce variance. Therefore it may be rational to do this. It's also rational to take -EV gambles, like getting fire insurance for your house and stuff like that. What players should avoid, though, is making a slightly less EV play than they know is possible, without understanding their utility of money correctly and without understanding the difference in variance between the two plays.

It's also possible that depending on someone's ROR threshold, they may choose to play with a given bankroll but will be forced to avoid certain plays that have too high of a VAR/EV. I.E. when you're under-rolled, you have to avoid certain +EV plays. If this still leaves you +EV overall, it may be rational to play while underrolled, as long as you play correctly given your bankroll.

This is really advanced gambling theory stuff, and I'm not sure of the math of it: plus you'd have to make a simulator to judge the std dev of various situations... anyways, it's not as bad as you think it is, probably, maybe. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

(Sorry, had to defend my title.)
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  #25  
Old 12-30-2005, 06:59 PM
DavidC DavidC is offline
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Default Re: Moving Up Is Hard To Do

I'm at point #7 right now, and I'd just like to say that I agree so far. Good post!

Personally, I'm not sure if I'm able to do something like play under different game mechanics (playing 1/2 and 2/4 isn't hard, but playing 2/4 and 3/6 is hard because of the blind structure... playing LHE and NLHE has proven to be very difficult).

Your point about being willing to move around the limits is very insightful. I'm kinda curious if you do a lot of bonus hunting and that's why you would be used to playing different game levels.

I know when I play paradise I play anywhere from 2/4 to 8/16, and often multiple levels, but on party, I don't generally bother. I've also played a mix of 2/4 and 3/6 on pokerroom, but I'm not happy with my performance at either site while playing multiple levels.
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  #26  
Old 12-30-2005, 07:01 PM
DavidC DavidC is offline
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Default Re: Moving Up Is Hard To Do

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ok, some of these posts are kind of bothering me, so I'm going to throw in my 2 cents. I am going to be kind of a nit to all of the people talking about winrates, because in all honesty they don't mean much. Even after 100k hands at a given limit you still may be quite far from your true winrate. That being said, since not many of us have the time to play a million hands at each level, we must infer some things from short term results.


[/ QUOTE ]

I find it hard to believe that after 100,000 hands you can be quite far from your true winrate. And, yes, I've taken statistics courses.

[/ QUOTE ]

How close would we be, with a standard dev of 15/100 and a 95% confidence level?

I'm asking because I don't know, not just to be a smartass, but I'm curious, because I'm hopefully going to be moving up limits soon. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Edit: 99% confidence level too, if you don't mind.
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  #27  
Old 12-30-2005, 07:16 PM
DavidC DavidC is offline
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Default Re: Moving Up Is Hard To Do

Firstly, thanks for the GOT quote Jax.

Secondly:
[ QUOTE ]
Most people do not play the same poker for x thousand hands, they learn and improve, or tilt or get lazy / play badly.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, or game conditions change or whatever, but you can view these things as an agregate, and the alternative to this is just to say that you'll never know if you're a winner, which is probably not true.
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  #28  
Old 12-30-2005, 07:20 PM
DavidC DavidC is offline
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Default Re: Moving Up Is Hard To Do

[ QUOTE ]
To me, winning 2BB/100 at X limit is much more beneficial(psychologically) that winning 1BB/100 at 2X limit.


[/ QUOTE ]

Replace 2x with 3x and you've got me down too. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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  #29  
Old 12-30-2005, 07:44 PM
shadow29 shadow29 is offline
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Default Re: Moving Up Is Hard To Do

[ QUOTE ]


How close would we be, with a standard dev of 15/100 and a 95% confidence level?

I'm asking because I don't know, not just to be a smartass, but I'm curious, because I'm hopefully going to be moving up limits soon. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Edit: 99% confidence level too, if you don't mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even I know the answer!!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Assuming that after 100,000 hands you have a winrate of 3 bb/100, and a SD of 15 bb/100, the .95 confidence level is:

[2.070307452, 3.929692548]

so, we can be almost an entire bb/100 off from our "true" winrate. (I think).

The .99 CI is: [1.778176881, 4.221823119]

And that's even bigger.

So basically, you can never really know your "true" winrate.
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  #30  
Old 12-30-2005, 08:49 PM
trdi trdi is offline
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Default Re: Moving Up Is Hard To Do

[ QUOTE ]
One thing I like to do is avoid opening all 4 tables at once. Open up 1 and get good reads. Then add another and get reads on it. Continue until the desired # of tables is reached.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's great advice, thank you. I notice that when I open 4 tables at once, I just can't track everything. And I was wondering why, because after 10 minutes, those tables are not a problem at all. You say it's that I take more time for my decisions as I don't know players yet? Very probable.
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