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View Poll Results: What hands win big pots?
others (J4 os) 2 7.41%
one/two-gappers (like 86os) 0 0%
suited connectors 6 22.22%
big hands (QQ/AK-type) 12 44.44%
small pairs 7 25.93%
Voters: 27. You may not vote on this poll

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  #11  
Old 12-27-2005, 05:29 AM
Lloyd Lloyd is offline
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Default Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)

Well, I'm sure it depends on the buy-in. In $100+ tournies I don't see many medium sized stacks calling with small Aces after a 12xBB push in MP. Sure, the big stacks might call and if there's a small stack in the blinds they might call. But on the whole they're going to fold A9 and below and usually AT. I could see in a small buy-in tourney getting called with worse Aces.
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  #12  
Old 12-27-2005, 05:37 AM
Lloyd Lloyd is offline
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Default Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)

You think a good player will call a 12xBB push w/22? I sure don't. Again, it gets back to the buy-in. But unless they have chips to spare or are desperate then I see them folding most of the small pairs - perhaps even up to 77s. And when you calcuate your equity against 88+, AQ+ it drops down to 35% although of course the chance of getting called decreases.

And it's not just a question of whether pushing is +EV. The question is whether or not pushing is the most +EV versus other alternatives. It may very well be but you need to consider all options and what you're opponents are likely to do if you just make a normal raise. What hands will they push with? What hands will they call with? You need to think about who is left to act after you and who is in the blinds. While in a STT there are lots of automatic decisions I think that's less the case in an MTT where there are many factors to consider.
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  #13  
Old 12-27-2005, 06:15 AM
el_dusto el_dusto is offline
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Default Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)

[ QUOTE ]
since, no one has chosen "fold" yet, can those who advocate the "~3 BB raise" option comment on what they'd do if they got re-raised pre-flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

1 reraiser: call
reraiser followed by more re-reraisers: fold

if the one reraise was an insta-push, I might move my cursor over all the buttons and then pick fold.
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  #14  
Old 12-27-2005, 10:02 AM
Texas Pete Texas Pete is offline
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Default Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)

Since the ~3BB raise encourages middle and lower pairs to push, I don't like it. I also think if someone flat calls it is going to be a high pocket pair, AQ, or AK and a big stack. Plus a failed continuation bet leaves hero with not much of a stack at all. I would rather fold this hand than make a standard raise.

Since the push is marginally +CEV with good players it serves as a nice dividing line for an orange zone push, IMO.

Personally I am not calling this allin without a premium hand: TT+, AK. Of course, if the callers have tighter ranges than 22+, AQ+ then it's even more +CEV to push, right??
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  #15  
Old 12-27-2005, 10:30 AM
ononimo ononimo is offline
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Default Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)

[ QUOTE ]
You think a good player will call a 12xBB push w/22? I sure don't. Again, it gets back to the buy-in. But unless they have chips to spare or are desperate then I see them folding most of the small pairs - perhaps even up to 77s. And when you calcuate your equity against 88+, AQ+ it drops down to 35% although of course the chance of getting called decreases.

[/ QUOTE ]

more often than not, this seems like an argument for a push vs. 3 BB raise. too lazy to do the math right now longhand (and don't have pokerstove at work) but, if one accepts that worse aces won't call a 3BB raise (especially at high buy-ins) but pairs < 88 will call a 3 BB raise but fold to a push, intuition would suggest that a push is +EV vs. a 3BB raise, ceteris paribus.
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  #16  
Old 12-27-2005, 01:23 PM
Georgia Avenue Georgia Avenue is offline
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Default Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)

At highly aggressive tables, would anyone consider limp/rr all-in, depending on the player who raises? I've never tried this, but I've heard lovely things about it...Obviously doomed to failure if limpers never get raised by the big stacks...
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  #17  
Old 12-27-2005, 02:06 PM
McMelchior McMelchior is offline
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Default Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)

[ QUOTE ]
Since the ~3BB raise encourages middle and lower pairs to push, I don't like it.

[/ QUOTE ]
For exactly the same reason I like it.

Very big difference between STTs and MTTs.

In STTs it's a sound strategy to sneak into the money - stack conservation issues are highly relevant.

I firmly believe in MTTs that doubling your stack at critical points - and one is very much about to come up, a point where you lose your FE because of stack shrinkage - gives you substantially bigger EV gain the you lose by busting out. There's just too little value in 'sneaking' in - and too much to win by making it deep in the money.

I'd be happy to see middle or lower pairs push here - I'd call in a heart beat, getting the right odds, and adding value to my stronger hands later on should I prevail.

Additionally, I expect to see worse Aces and even KQ type hands coming over the top - at least at the levels I play ($20 buy-in, $5 - $10 re-buys).

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)
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  #18  
Old 12-27-2005, 02:14 PM
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Default Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)

I went with the push... but that was after eliminating a couple of other factors that I would consider if it were actually me.

One of the main questions being, "How long left in this level?"
If it's early in the level, I think I might be more inclined to wait. The reason I say this is because we are in MP now, we're moving towards EP and the blinds (therefore having the 'risk' of bigger hands calling us in EP as well having our M chopped up by the blinds.) If the level ends before we get to the blinds then our M is significantly different... no longer High Orange. If we can get to the blinds in this level, then our life in the blinds is a little easier and our M is spared for another round.

In short I think it important to consider the lifespan of our current M. 10 has a heckuva lot more options than 5.
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  #19  
Old 12-27-2005, 02:15 PM
JustPlayingSmart JustPlayingSmart is offline
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Default Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)

You're missing a fundamental difference between SNGs and MTTs. The payout structure of an MTT is so top heavy that accumulating chips is much more important than survival. In a STT (with 5 players left, especially), survival becomes paramount. If you look in that thread, you will see that Curtains said he would most likely not push AQo in this situation in an MTT.

In an STT, cEV is often times very different than $EV. In early and middle stages of an MTT, cEV is usually very close to $EV.

Pushing might be the best play here, but a bubble SNG situation gives no support to your argument.

BTW, you don't think you can play AJs profitably from MP in this spot with a standard raise?
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  #20  
Old 12-27-2005, 03:12 PM
Elaboration Elaboration is offline
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Default Re: pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)

Texas,

Haven't looked at the STT debate, but to me, this is really a table dynamics sort of thing.

Most of the time I'm tossing in a standard raise, but if the table was playing loose and I thought I could get the chips in against a dominated hand, or KQ and such then pushing isnt terrible.

As I look closer, I'd prefer to be a little closer to the button so it seems more like a steal.
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