Two Plus Two Older Archives probability of dropping 10BB
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#1
04-30-2005, 02:29 PM
 Texas Pete Member Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 82
probability of dropping 10BB

(1) Can anyone estimate the probability of dropping 10BB in 100 hands, assuming the player is +3BB/100 on average? Make and state any other assumptions you want.

(2) Is this the stupidist question in the world? I'm new to o/8 and am just trying to get an idea of what to expect if I play a couple of hours a day.

Thanks

Pete
#2
04-30-2005, 02:36 PM
 MelchyBeau Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Ruston, La... Soon San Diego Posts: 186
Re: probability of dropping 10BB

[ QUOTE ]

(1) Can anyone estimate the probability of dropping 10BB in 100 hands, assuming the player is +3BB/100 on average? Make and state any other assumptions you want.

[/ QUOTE ]

very probable.

[ QUOTE ]

(2) Is this the stupidist question in the world? I'm new to o/8 and am just trying to get an idea of what to expect if I play a couple of hours a day.

[/ QUOTE ]

very probable

melch
#3
04-30-2005, 03:16 PM
 Texas Pete Member Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 82
Re: probability of dropping 10BB

2 out of 3

1 out of 2

1 out of 3

#4
04-30-2005, 03:31 PM
 Texas Pete Member Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 82
Re: probability of dropping 10BB

From my limited experience i'm going with "1 out of 3"
#5
04-30-2005, 10:45 PM
 Beavis68 Senior Member Join Date: May 2004 Location: AZ Posts: 779
Re: probability of dropping 10BB

100%.
#6
05-01-2005, 04:59 PM
 beernutz Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: gulf coast Posts: 908
Re: probability of dropping 10BB

It happens. Yesterday in a particularly awful run including my AA23s getting quartered heads-up by A235ns when the flop was 447 rainbow (probably not that bad of a beat actually) and a string of &gt;10 in a row A2suited hands with unplayable flops. I dropped 60BBs and I'm sure there was a stretch where I lost &gt;10 in 100 hands. Of course, some of the extreme LAGs were going up and down that much every rotation.

At mid-stakes 6-max I'd guess *my* probability of being down 10BBs over 100 hands within any given 1000 hand stretch at close to 100% due to the variance I've experienced in that game.

It is not a stupid question but the answer is going to vary widely with game conditions, table size, opponents, etc. so it is not an easy one to answer.
[ QUOTE ]
(1) Can anyone estimate the probability of dropping 10BB in 100 hands, assuming the player is +3BB/100 on average? Make and state any other assumptions you want.

(2) Is this the stupidist question in the world? I'm new to o/8 and am just trying to get an idea of what to expect if I play a couple of hours a day.

Thanks

Pete

[/ QUOTE ]
#7
05-01-2005, 08:39 PM
 Buzz Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: L.A. Posts: 598
Re: probability of dropping 10BB

Pete - Seems to me it would depend a lot on the particular table. Where there's a lot of pre-flop raising, and then also a lot of action after the flop, it's easy to drop 10 big bets in one rotation or less of the table. Just play a couple of hands and miss, and there you are, down ten or more big bets. And then it can be a while before you win it back - and you can lose more while you're trying to win it back.

In a saner, more passive game, it's harder to lose ten big bets in a hundred hands. However, even in a conservative game, a spell of bad luck and there you are. Doesn't really seem unusual to me.

Figure a hand with a bet each round but no raising costs 3 big bets to see the showdown. Just seeing the river in such a game costs 2 big bets.

Omaha-8 is a drawing game. You can easily have a fine starting hand, catch a favorable draw on the flop, and then have it fizzle on the turn and river. That can easily happen enough in a 100 hand session to not be counterbalanced by wins.

Maybe three or four hours of play amounts to 100 hands at some slowish tables. It's depressing when you play three or four hours in a row and either don't get enough decent starting hands and/or have them fizzle when you do, but many of us have endured evenings where we didn't catch one scooper for three or four hours. When it happens to someone, chances are they'll be down more than ten big bets.

But aside from an occasional session long run of bad luck, how often you figure to go home minus ten big bets would seem to depend very much on how well you play the game compared to how well your opponents play. In the games in which I play, anybody can easily get ten big bets back (and more) with just one nice scooper.

Buzz

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