15/30 TT against a TAG

[Nightwish]

MP3 is a TAG. I have played almost 1,100 hands with him, though given that it's spread out over quite a few different screen names, I'm not sure if he realizes exactly how many hands he's played against me. He is definitely a winning player, very aggressive, though I've also seen him call down in situations where it was clear (at least to me) that he was beat. His VP$IP is 21, and his PFR is 9.

Needless to say, I don't go up against him that often, which is why I found this hand interesting.

The BB is a typical Party LAG.

Given all that, what hand do you put the TAG on and what should I do on the turn?


Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Nightwish is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">Nightwish raises</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 <font color="purple">(TAG)</font> calls, CO calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB <font color="purple">(Loosie)</font> calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">Loosie bets</font>, UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">Nightwish raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">TAG 3-bets</font>, CO folds, SB folds, Loosie calls, <font color="CC3333">Nightwish caps</font>, TAG calls, Loosie calls.

Turn: (12 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
Loosie checks, <font color="CC3333">Nightwish bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">TAG raises</font>, Loosie folds

[Steve Giufre]

Night,

I give him A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], maybe A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I know the pot is big, but I'd let it go on the turn. I dont think he is gonna check behind this river, he's got ya. Also, even though the third player doesnt command a lot of respect, he gives a you little protection because it's harder for the TAG to make a move on you with him in the pot.

[Analyst]

Hmmm . . . TAG cold-called but didn't 3-bet. I'll take a shot and say he has something like big suited clubs, AJ or possibly KQ. It's very hard to imagine that he has a set or A2/A3/A5, even suited, or 44.

You need to call the turn bet. You're getting 15:1 and (assuming that he doesn't have the unlikely set or even more unlikely straight) have two T outs to win and three chop-outs in the non-club 4s.

[mmcd]

He has AK or AQ clubs.

Fold.

[Analyst]

[ QUOTE ]
He has AK or AQ clubs.

Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is unlikely as TAG would 3-bet PF, but even if he showed you these cards, you'd have to call.

2/42 * 450 = $21.43 for the two T outs (and you'd probably win another 1-2 bets on the rivers)

3/42 * 225 = $16.07 for the non-club 4s

Gotta call.

[Steve Giufre]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has AK or AQ clubs.

Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is unlikely as TAG would 3-bet PF, but even if he showed you these cards, you'd have to call.

2/42 * 450 = $21.43 for the two T outs (and you'd probably win another 1-2 bets on the rivers)

3/42 * 225 = $16.07 for the non-club 4s

Gotta call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didnt notice the 4 makes it a chop. That changes things a bit.

[Gabe]

[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
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Quote:
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He has AK or AQ clubs.

Fold.


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AK is unlikely as TAG would 3-bet PF, but even if he showed you these cards, you'd have to call.

2/42 * 450 = $21.43 for the two T outs (and you'd probably win another 1-2 bets on the rivers)

3/42 * 225 = $16.07 for the non-club 4s

Gotta call.


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I didnt notice the 4 makes it a chop. That changes things a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]


I miss that too often. Calling is worth $9.20, with it.

[stanky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has AK or AQ clubs.

Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is unlikely as TAG would 3-bet PF

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a TAG would call with AK suited especially if he thinks Nightwish is a TAG. He might want to try and play this multi-way rather than 3-betting and isolating Nightwish

-pete

[Vic Ferrari]

I posted this in the beginners forum but didn't quite get the answer...so if anyone wants to take the time to enlighten me I'd appreciate it.

Analyst wrote:
[ QUOTE ]
AK is unlikely as TAG would 3-bet PF, but even if he showed you these cards, you'd have to call.

2/42 * 450 = $21.43 for the two T outs (and you'd probably win another 1-2 bets on the rivers)

[/ QUOTE ]

If there are 4 board cards, 2 in hero's hand and we "know" opponent has AcQc, that makes 8 known cards......why are you calculating your two T outs among 42 remaining cards instead of 44 (52-8)?

i.e. why 2/42 instead of 2/44

Thanks!

[Analyst]

[ QUOTE ]

If there are 4 board cards, 2 in hero's hand and we "know" opponent has AcQc, that makes 8 known cards......why are you calculating your two T outs among 42 remaining cards instead of 44 (52-8)?

i.e. why 2/42 instead of 2/44

Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

Because subtraction is apparently beyond Analyst's grasp . . . [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Let's try this:

2/44 * 450 = $20.45
3/44 * 225 = $15.34

Still an easy, easy call unless you think that there's ~~~20% or higher chance that villain has a set.

Sorry about that!