AJs - berated afterward for being lucky - true?

MrBruno · #1 12-10-2004, 09:42 AM

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, MP3 calls, CO 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (13.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, MP3 folds, CO calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: (21.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds.

Final Pot: 24.75 BB

Ajax410 · #2 12-10-2004, 10:01 AM

You didn't get lucky - but you didn't play it well either.

Bet the flop - call his inevitable raise.

Call the turn.

C/R the river.

Alex

zuluking · #3 12-10-2004, 10:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You didn't get lucky - but you didn't play it well either.

Bet the flop - call his inevitable raise.

Call the turn.

C/R the river.

Alex

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya. Bet the flop.

I'd raise the turn also.

c/r the river is 50/50. I guess it depends on your table read.

srt19170 · #4 12-10-2004, 10:04 AM

I like it, although flop & turn are a little aggressive for me.

With middle pair, runner-runner flush and one overcard which will put 3 to a str8 on the board you're not terribly strong. Likewise the raise on the turn: you're 5:1 to hit the flush and at best have 4 callers, but the implicit odds probably make up for that.

Any time you hit runner-runner flush people will berate you for your "foolish" play. And when you miss they'll take your money with nary a complaint :-).

-- Scott

Nick Royale · #5 12-10-2004, 10:04 AM

Preflop: Standard

Flop: What were your reasoning when you raised. IMO you don't accomplish anything with that. You won't get a freecard since CO has position on you and you risk getting 3-betted. I only raise here if CO is a LAG who will bluff here almost always.

Turn: You have a really strong draw strong draw. CO might have a set or KJ which makes me wanna discount your out to 12. I do not fear UTG+2 that much, might have hit 2-pair or a weaker flushdraw. You have about 26% equity which will make this bet for value if you get 3 callers. In this big pot it's not unlikely and that's exactly what you get (3 callers). I would have settled for a call though, risking a 3-bet from CO.

River: Standard

Ajax410 · #6 12-10-2004, 10:06 AM

Obviously the C/R on the river is read dependent - I don't even bother saying that now when I should.

I don't like the turn raise - I think he can see the river for cheap, and I'm not sure how many outs he actually has. Clearly the 9 spades are good, but the 3 aces are debatable...especially when looking at the flop action - I'd give hero about 12.5 outs - which isn't enough to justify raising this turn.

I lied - the turn raise is fine.

I still don't make this raise because I don't want to force the field to call two cold when I'm on a flush draw.

Alex

Nick Royale · #7 12-10-2004, 10:08 AM

The turn agressor is in front of hero so I would not try to check/raise the river.

<blockquote>Svar till:<hr />
I'd raise the turn also.

c/r the river is 50/50. I guess it depends on your table read.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you raise the turn you would never try to check/raise the river, I guess?

Nick Royale · #8 12-10-2004, 10:14 AM

<blockquote>Svar till:<hr />
don't like the turn raise - I think he can see the river for cheap, and I'm not sure how many outs he actually has. Clearly the 9 spades are good, but the 3 aces are debatable...especially when looking at the flop action - I'd give hero about 12.5 outs - which isn't enough to justify raising this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero has only 7 good spadeouts when CO has flopped a set. But giving 12.5 outs is a reasonable estimation, even if I'd say it's a little generous. 11-12 I would say looking at the flop action.

<blockquote>Svar till:<hr />
I still don't make this raise because I don't want to force the field to call two cold when I'm on a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, you might fold opponents you need in the pot to make raising +EV.

chaz64 · #9 12-10-2004, 11:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Flop: What were your reasoning when you raised. IMO you don't accomplish anything with that. You won't get a freecard since CO has position on you and you risk getting 3-betted. I only raise here if CO is a LAG who will bluff here almost always.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the raise worth it if it drives MP3 out? If not, is it worth it if it makes two opponents call two cold or folds them? Three?

I wouldn't raise the turn though - I don't try to drive people out when I'm on a draw.

Nick Royale · #10 12-10-2004, 11:09 AM

<blockquote>Svar till:<hr />
Is the raise worth it if it drives MP3 out? If not, is it worth it if it makes two opponents call two cold or folds them? Three?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would say no.

<blockquote>Svar till:<hr />
I wouldn't raise the turn though - I don't try to drive people out when I'm on a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree.