8 handed nut flush draw

ucfryan · #1 12-09-2004, 08:03 PM

Good flop for me, but should I have 3 bet the turn?

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB completes, BB raises, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG raises, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero 3-bets, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (17 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, MP1 raises, MP2 folds, Hero calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 bets, Hero folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 28 BB

The13atman · #2 12-09-2004, 08:25 PM

Well I'm not positive, but I think it's perfect. If you can be sure that all 4 opponents will see the river if you 3 bet (which you can't) you're still putting in 1/5 of the money with a 1/5.1 shot of hitting your draw. However, you have the odds to call, and even if it gets 3 bet and capped and comes back around for 2 more bets to you, you still have the odds to call. Hopefully a more knowledgable player will reply as well.

srt19170 · #3 12-09-2004, 08:41 PM

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Good flop for me, but should I have 3 bet the turn?

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Yes. You're 5:1 to hit the flush on the turn, so it's a solid value bet just for the next card. Throw in the implicit bets you'll win if you hit the flush, and it's an easy bet. Most players here would bet/raise for value with 2 callers in this situation. I'm a little more conservative and would like to have 3 or 4. With 4 people calling 1 bet and 2 more in the pot, it's a good bet.

Too bad it didn't hit :-(

-- Scott

The13atman · #4 12-09-2004, 08:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Good flop for me, but should I have 3 bet the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. You're 5:1 to hit the flush on the turn, so it's a solid value bet just for the next card. Throw in the implicit bets you'll win if you hit the flush, and it's an easy bet. Most players here would bet/raise for value with 2 callers in this situation. I'm a little more conservative and would like to have 3 or 4. With 4 people calling 1 bet and 2 more in the pot, it's a good bet.

Too bad it didn't hit :-(

-- Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

While obviously he has the pot odds to call, betting and raising are not based on pot odds are they? They are based on equity? So he's only getting paid off 5 to 1 (already slightly lower than the odds to hit the flush) IF every player comes along, and given this action you cannot assume SB will check and then cold call 3 bets. So Hero is still putting in more than his share of the money on this round. That's what the decision should be based on, not previous rounds isn't it? Maybe I have a misconception of equity...

GivenToFly · #5 12-09-2004, 09:07 PM

I think it all depends on if you think sb will call only if you call. If you think that sb will probably fold no matter what a majority of the time, I would 3-bet. However, if it's a case where sb will call only if you call then its definitely the right move to call. Maybe I'm wrong on this.

Nick C · #6 12-09-2004, 09:11 PM

I would play the hand the same way Hero did.

On the turn, you're approximately 4:1 to hit your flush, and, despite your overcards, I think a flush is all you expect to win with. (Given the action, I don't think catching top pair would be enough.) Also, you can't fully rely on the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as outs (MP1's turn raise could indicate a slowplayed set) and three players (besides you) have bet or raised postflop -- with such interest in the pot, there may be fewer hearts left in the deck than we'd hope there would be.

With only four opponents left when the action gets to you on the turn (and you can't be certain they'll all hang around, which is even more true if you 3-bet), I think just calling is best. It may get 3-bet and then capped behind you anyway, but I'd try to see the river as cheaply as possible.

cold_cash · #7 12-09-2004, 09:17 PM

If you knew you could get 4 callers on your turn bets you could bet/raise it for value. (I think a flush draw with one to come is 4:1 against, not 5:1, isn't it?)

When the action gets to you it doesn't look like a 3-bet would get called in that many spots, so calling might be better. However, you need to add in the fact that along with your flush draw you still have 2 overcards that add some value to your hand, so the decision to raise or call is a lot closer, IMO.

Entity · #8 12-09-2004, 09:23 PM

Anyone else raise this preflop?

Your postflop play is perfect. Perfect.

Rob

Shillx · #9 12-09-2004, 09:34 PM

Yeah you could. The general idea is to raise a hand like this when people play pretty well post-flop (they understand pot odds and do more chasing in big pots). If the people will go to far with their hands no matter the pot size, then it loses some of its luster.

srt19170 · #10 12-09-2004, 09:46 PM

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While obviously he has the pot odds to call, betting and raising are not based on pot odds are they? They are based on equity?

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but the pot odds to the nut hand on the next card is the lower limit of your equity. (!!)

To see why, suppose you're drawing to the nut hand after the flop, and your odds are 5:1. Furthermore, suppose the the pot is empty. The question is, should you bet or raise?

Well, 1 time in 6 you will draw the nut and win with the next card. If you bet 1 SB each of those times (6 SB), then you need to win at least 6 SB to break even. Therefore, you should bet/raise if you'll have 5 callers.

In truth, your equity is higher for two reasons. First, there's a chance you may win the hand even if you miss the nut -- pairing the A, for instance. Conversely, you can never lose the hand if you make the nut. Second, if you make the nut hand, there's still two more rounds of betting for you to collect. So when you win, you'll almost always collect much more than 6 SB. (The exception being when the turn card makes your hand but creates a new nut!) And when you miss the nut, you can always fold, so you can limit your losses to 1 SB.

In this case, he isn't actually drawing to the nut (someone could be drawing to the 2-6 straight flush) but it's close enough for all practical purposes. People generally treat a 2 card flush draw with a face card as the nut hand in these cases, so pot odds == equity, although if you're wrong you can lose a lot of money!

-- Scott