Odds to Chase?

[btspider]

7 players to the turn.. i think the 4 of flushes needs a larger discount. i'd say about 3.25 outs, minus some rare boat potential i suppose.. 3.1 - 3.2 outs i'm thinking.

also, the top card pairing will often give TPWK a reason to raise if one of the 5 others have a J.

a turn call may be able to be snuck in, but a fold ain't bad either.

[Cooker]

I believe this is essentially correct. You should consider how being raised behind you effects your odds before you put in the first call. Saying to yourself,"I have the odds right now to call, and my pot odds will only be better on calling a raise behind" is not the correct way to think about it. Thinking like this will really have you making many -EV decisions. You are really committing potentially 2 bets when you call the first bet, because you are committed to call a raise, so your pot odds were really only about half as good as you thought they were when you called the first bet.

If you knew the chance that someone would raise behind you, a good pot odds calculation would be something like
Pot + (raise behind %)*(number raise callers)*(1BB) to 1 BB + (raise behing %) * 1BB odds.
In practice, you don't really know enough about the other players hands and tendancies to do this, but on a 10 to 1 or so shot with almost right at 10 to 1 current pot odds, you know that if the raise behind percent is 1% you are making a -EV call in the first place. This is why chasing is much better in position, because you can buy free cards or possibly have the option to close the betting.

[Piiop]

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Why assume it won't get reraised by the flop original flop bettor?

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Why assume it will?

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It could easily get capped by the original raiser then how do your odds look?

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Still good, the pot is big. Also, for it to get capped, someone would need to raise, then someone would 3-bet, THEN it could be capped. Not a big concern at this point.

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Even if this doesn't happen one of your outs puts a three flush on the board so you can't call this a true 4-outer.

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This is true. Odds are still good anyway.

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Your 12:1 odds are only good if your draw is a solid four-outer to the nuts on the turn.

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I'm not really sure what you mean by this, but do you only play draws to the nuts? Anyway, he only needs around 3.2 outs to make this immediate call correct.

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With this hand you kind of need to get the 4 on the turn because you probably wont have the odds to see the river if you miss.

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Heh, well I'm sure he was trying to get the 4 to fall on the turn, but just wasn't concentrating hard enough. He still has the odds to call.

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Even if you catch the non-4 4 to make the str8 on the turn there are tons of redraws that kill you on the river.

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True.

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This is a marginal call drawing to a hand that is not the nuts

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True.

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You have 9 players on the flop most of whom have odds to draw to a flush

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They all have odds to draw to a flush but what does that have to do with anything?

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Saying this fold is wrong is wrong.

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Flop call = good.

[Piiop]

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3.1 - 3.2

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That's fine. You take the 3.1 and fold, I'll take the 3.2 and call. It's a close decision.

[btspider]

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3.1 - 3.2

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That's fine. You take the 3.1 and fold, I'll take the 3.2 and call. It's a close decision.

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yeah, i agree with everything you said.. but i'm not calling or folding based on 3.1 or 3.2 outs. i'm making that decision based on the likelihood of a raise behind us. that's more important that a trivial tenth of an out. .5 outs for the 4 of flushes is too much tho, just had to nitpick on that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Octopus]

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Saying this fold is wrong is wrong.

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Nah. It's a close decision. Folding would not be bad, but calling is not wrong.

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This discussion (in this sub-thread) is about the flop, not the turn. Are you sure it's a close decision?

[Piiop]

Mah bad, thought we were talking about the turn there.

[btspider]

piiop and i are talking about the turn. you guys had a separate flop discussion. the flop call is just fine.

[Piiop]

How does the way the action went down affect your estimate of how often it will be raised behind us on the turn? Specifically, that the original flop bettor checked and MP1 bet the turn. (Reads would help a lot here - on the bettors and players left to act)

I just dont think it will happen very often at all. Like I said in my first post in this thread, I think the biggest reason to fold the turn is your relative position. Your odds could be cut by a raise/reraise behind you and you won't pick up any extra river bets. So, if you thought the probability of a raise behind you was somewhat substantial then you could easily go from call to fold (Or fold to easier fold [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]). If he folded, I definitely wouldn't say it was bad. It's on the very edge of +EV but could easily fall into -EV given the right circumstances. But I do think it can be +EV, so a call would not be incorrect.

[srt19170]

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(Reads would help a lot here - on the bettors and players left to act)


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I'd just sat down so I didn't have any reads I trusted.

I almost didn't post this hand because looking it over I thought "Well, dummy, this is just calculating pot odds, no one's going to make any comment!" :-)

I obviously need to work on my position play; I didn't think about it nearly enough on this hand.

-- Scott