10/20 loose flop call big pot

Poldi · #1 10-20-2005, 09:28 AM

BB is 85/13/1.1, limpreraised 66 UTG against an Isolation-Raise + a coldcaller.
CO and Button are very passive.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, CO calls, Button folds.

Turn: (7.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, CO calls.

River: (10.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets..

ALL1N · #2 10-20-2005, 10:10 AM

Fold the flop

flawless_victory · #3 10-20-2005, 11:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the flop

[/ QUOTE ]yeah!

wackjob · #4 10-20-2005, 11:56 AM

You fish!

trentcroad · #5 10-20-2005, 12:02 PM

The flop was a bit to loose for me.

Poldi · #6 10-20-2005, 12:28 PM

Okay, as I expected none of you likes it, so here is my reasoning.
The biggest factor obviously is the pot size. 4 players going in for 3 bets each, so I m getting 13:1 odds on my flopcall.
Of course I am not last to act but both CO and button were donkeys, with this preflop action and 2 already in on the flop they wouldnt even raise a good Q.
I took a quick glance at my odds chart and saw I needed only a little more than 3 outs to make this call profitable, lets say 3,5 because some of the time even the LP will raise.

My 0gap backdoor straight draw is 1,5 outs.
My K is not that often dominated, BBs 3bet means a wide range because of the read (limpRR with 66 in a 3 way pot), lets give it 2 outs.
Sometimes my J is good, lets call it 0,5 outs.
So I probably have around 4 outs.
Where am I wrong?

My conclusion would be that I have a profitable call but ONLY IF all my reads are correct and there is not much room for error so if anything of it is wrong the call turns into an unprofitable one.