Should I have folded this due to the bubble?

betgo · #1 10-25-2005, 09:39 AM

$150 "football" tournament. 85 players left, 70 places pay. Since this is a reasonably marginal push and the I don't have additional folding equity due to the bubble, should I fold here? I am not trying to fold into the money, but maybe I should wait for better opportunities. Of course it may take a while to get to the money, because some small stacks are playing extremely tight. I often wind up bubbling out like this, because I don't pay a lot of attention to the bubble.

Blinds 400/800/50.
Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, (10 handed) converter

MP1 (t4714)
MP2 (t11705)
Hero (t5517)
CO (t7450)
Button (t9932)
SB (t25074)
BB (t29866)
UTG (t4570)
UTG+1 (t12495)
UTG+2 (t9900)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of t400.
5 folds, Hero raises to t5467, CO raises to t7400, 2 folds.

Flop: (t14067) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)

Turn: (t14067) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)

River: (t14067) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)

Final Pot: t14067

Results in white below: 
Hero has Td 9d (one pair, nines).
CO has Kh Kd (three of a kind, kings).
Button doesn't show.
Outcome: CO wins t14067.

#2 10-25-2005, 10:05 AM

I would have definately waited for a better hand to push, I like this hand a lot better when I'm the big stack and some shorty pushes AI. Then I would be comfortable to call, but now you are almost always dominated by a better hand that can be your ticket out of the game. I don't see this a +EV situation with the big stacks in the SB and BB still to act after you.

Maybe I'm being weak-tightish if I say I would only push with this stack when I get a Q8s+, Kx, Ax, any PP and any 2 Broadway cards.

Roman · #3 10-25-2005, 10:07 AM

this is a fold.

MrMoo · #4 10-25-2005, 12:16 PM

I think this is table dependent. The only reason I don't really like it is because the SB and BB are the two big stacks. If you've got a read that they're playing tight or not defending their blinds I think it's a great play. There is 1700 in the pot preflop and you're under 10BB.

#5 10-25-2005, 12:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is table dependent. The only reason I don't really like it is because the SB and BB are the two big stacks. If you've got a read that they're playing tight or not defending their blinds I think it's a great play. There is 1700 in the pot preflop and you're under 10BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. The SB and BB stacks are making me worried here if I was to every push with a marginal hand. If it was one or two hand earlier it would have been an easy decision moving all in but I think I would have waited in this spot fearing the blinds stack here.

Now you just got unlucky someone picked up KK [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

tshak · #6 10-25-2005, 12:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There is 1700 in the pot preflop and you're under 10BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. The pot is huge, your stack is not. I really like this push in your position. You barely have the chips for fold equity, but now is a better time than after the blinds hit you again in which case the big stacks' calling range will be much wider. You've got a chance to steal a pot that's worth 1/3rd of your stack. When you are called many times you'll be a 3:2 dog or maybe a coinflip against a small pair. In this case you rain into the small JJ+ range which you're really a dog against. I like this push because it folds many hands that dominate you (QJ, QT, A4, etc.), the pot is big relative to your stack, you're in a decent position, and you're blinded out in three rounds.

schwza · #7 10-25-2005, 01:17 PM

i'd probably push here. i also mostly ignore the bubble, probably a little too much. the problem is that if you fold here, there's a pretty good chance you'll get your blind stolen and wind up very short at 600/1200 when the bubble does burst and you won't have much of a shot at the real money.

how much does the first pay level pay relative to the buy-in?