Two KJs blind hands that suck.

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I didn't notice earlier that MP folded to BB's flop bet, so I may have to retract my claim, but I'll cook the numbers anyway.


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That MP folds in the real hand for a single bet isn't really relevant in our hypothetical situation. All we know is that the pot is 15SB, the hand is 5-handed, Button raised two limpers and BB put in the last raise pre-flop.

[callydrias]

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If my logic is flawed here, please correct me. So we gained 2.1 SB here on a play that
1)won't always work, thereby only being worth X * 2.1 SB where X is the percentage of times this does get the other people to fold divided by 100.
2)Costs us an extra SB to do anyway.
So best case scenario (it always works) we gain 1.1 SB. In order for this to be profitable it must work (remove other two players) 48% of the time.

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Correct. It really gains us 1.1SB after taking the extra cost into account. We may gain a bit less than that if the play doesn't work, but I would think you wouldn't lose the entire 1.1SB, thus we ultimately gain by leading. Worst case (barring reraises) is everyone stays and it costs us an extra SB, but we already have more than our fair share of equity anyway, so life's still good.

[pokerstudAA]

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Hand 2) Perhaps lead the flop in order to enlist pretty aggresive BB into protecting your hand for you. Otherwise, I don't see much else you could do.

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I agree with this. Pot is very big, you might be ahead, RRer to your left. I lead out and hope to narrow it down.

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I don't like this lead. If he raises you, you haven't gained much because of how likely you are to be behind (and possibly far behind) his range. Anyone have the link to the thread in Micro (Aaron W.'s maybe) about leading into the PFR?

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I don't understad why everyone wants me to lead into the PFR when I am likely behind and have 5 outs. The button raised two limpers and the BB 3-bet the entire field. Hero has KJ on a JQ6 flop. I did not have the best hand before the flop and I still dont have the best hand....

Heres what will happen when I bet: BB will raise. Mabye button will 3 bet....I will call 1 or 1.5 BB with my 5 outs. Turn Blanks. Check. Bet. Call. Check. Ick. 3BB chasing 5 outs.

If I check: I draw the turn for 1/2 BB to hit my 5 outs against 5 opponents. I might get to check raise or I might hit a J and have someone with a worse J playing back at me. I might hit a K and get to check raise against AK.

[callydrias]

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I don't understad why everyone wants me to lead into the PFR when I am likely behind and have 5 outs.

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I don't understand why you spent the first paragraph of your OP discussing the LAGginess of the table but now give the preflop raisers so much credit for their hands.

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Heres what will happen when I bet: BB will raise. Mabye button will 3 bet....I will call 1 or 1.5 BB with my 5 outs. Turn Blanks. Check. Bet. Call. Check. Ick. 3BB chasing 5 outs.

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I think this is a bit pessimistic, but maybe you're right. I'm only considering the table read you gave. However, if you know the cards and action of future streets, you're probably better off open folding [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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If I check: I draw the turn for 1/2 BB to hit my 5 outs against 5 opponents. I might get to check raise or I might hit a J and have someone with a worse J playing back at me. I might hit a K and get to check raise against AK.

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True, you could check raise if someone catches smaller than you, but it's more likely that they'll catch bigger than you. Someone with AK has more outs to an A or T than a K. Someone may be playing a smaller J, but this is a big pot and you want it now! Don't give anyone a reasonable chance to draw out on you when you're ahead. And I think you're ahead enough to be proactive about dragging this pot.

I think leading and check/calling are close, but I think leading has more value. This is just my opinion.