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  #1  
Old 12-28-2005, 12:53 AM
SomethingClever SomethingClever is offline
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Default 3rd barrel against massive donkey

Button is like 85/10/1 over a decent sample, with a WTSD of like 52. He plays every hand and seriously loves donkbetting. He keeps sucking out on me.

I know the rule of thumb is don't bluff the unbluffable, but, two things:

1) The only street he had folded yet was the river.
2) This could be a value bet.

How's this?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, Button calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, Button calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (6.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>...
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  #2  
Old 12-28-2005, 01:01 AM
yellowjack yellowjack is offline
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Default Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey

It looked quite lag at first, but I think it's fine.

Edited to add: Referring to river bet.
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  #3  
Old 12-28-2005, 01:01 AM
gonzopro gonzopro is offline
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Default Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey

Check the turn and bet the river. Why bet the turn if you know he will not fold? There is enough value in a river bet given the read, but the turn bet sucks IMO.
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  #4  
Old 12-28-2005, 01:13 AM
Cumulonimbus Cumulonimbus is offline
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Default Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey

[ QUOTE ]
Check the turn and bet the river. Why bet the turn if you know he will not fold? There is enough value in a river bet given the read, but the turn bet sucks IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a good chance that the turn bet is for value.
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  #5  
Old 12-28-2005, 01:20 AM
A_C_Slater A_C_Slater is offline
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Default Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey

Is raisng QJo from the SB vs two limpers (1 CS) standard for you?
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  #6  
Old 12-28-2005, 01:31 AM
SomethingClever SomethingClever is offline
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Default Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey

Yes. Especially with Button in the hand.
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  #7  
Old 12-28-2005, 01:41 AM
Redd Redd is offline
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Default Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check the turn and bet the river. Why bet the turn if you know he will not fold? There is enough value in a river bet given the read, but the turn bet sucks IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a good chance that the turn bet is for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, IMHO there's a very good chance that this bet is for value.

edit: River too, really; there's not a very good chance he'll pay off but a decent chance that we're ahead here. Most of the winning hands that will call a river bet would have made themselves known earlier on.
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  #8  
Old 12-28-2005, 01:42 AM
oxymoron oxymoron is offline
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Default Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey

meh I don't like it. Smells like tilt.
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  #9  
Old 12-28-2005, 01:48 AM
Redd Redd is offline
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Default Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey

[ QUOTE ]
meh I don't like it. Smells like tilt.

[/ QUOTE ]
'Smells like tilt' doesn't convince me of anything. Could you elaborate?
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  #10  
Old 12-28-2005, 01:54 AM
imported_leader imported_leader is offline
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Default Re: 3rd barrel against massive donkey

36,080 games 0.361 secs 99,944 games/sec

Board: 2h 6c Ah 6h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 36.0685 % 32.23% 03.84% { QcJd }
Hand 2: 63.9315 % 60.09% 03.84% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 73s+, 62s+, 52s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J3o+, T5o+, 95o+, 85o+, 75o+, 65o, 54o }

This is quite generous and you're not doing to well. Since his WTSD is 50 we can probably assume he's folding some of this crap on the flop. Therefore, I wouldn't bet the turn. If he bets, fold. If it's checked though and you get that river, you need to assess his looseness/aggressiveness. Will he bluff more then call. You can not bet/call this IMO. Therefore, if you can't trust his raise, c/c. My default would be c/c.
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