A momentary lapse of reason?

Coilean · #1 09-07-2003, 09:34 AM

Arrived in LA Thursday and played the following hand in a Friday 40-80 game at the Commerce. The game is a little bit tight and aggressive, with a few looser spots prone to occassional gambling every now and again. I have K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the SB, one of the looser spots in CO+1 open raises (as seems to be his habit anytime everyone passes to him in LP), CO cold calls, button folds, I call, and BB calls.

Four of us see the flop of Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Checked to the CO+1 who bets, and we all call.

The turn is the 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Checked to CO+1 who checks, CO bets, I raise, BB and CO+1 fold, CO thinks a bit and calls.

The river is a brick, and I bet. Comments?

And btw, if anyone wants to say hi, I should be at the Commerce this evening in a tan and blue cap that says "St. Louie's Poker Room".

PokerBabe(aka) · #2 09-07-2003, 09:50 AM

Hi- In the previous post, you don't bet the river when I'm pretty sure you are ahead. In this post, you bet the river when I'm pretty sure you are behind. You have K high and make a play at the coordinated board here, but you opponent called a raise on the turn and can likely beat your bluff. Hope you raked this one in.

LGPG,

Babe [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Stork · #3 09-07-2003, 10:50 AM

What are you trying to do?

On the turn you raise with a gut draw and an overcard into people who obviously hit the flop one way or another. On the river you bluff when nobody is folding anyways?

p.s. Pink Floyd fan?

elysium · #4 09-07-2003, 11:36 AM

hi coilean
you're hopelessly out of position. if you have a read on the BB, and you know he won't raise, then call. but you've got nothing but trouble here coil and folding every time is probably correct.

the turn gets worse.

it's interesting to observe the effect of poor position on this hand. i think you had a pre-flop reraise, but when you flop like that from that position, call on the flop only if your call closes the action. this is a very marginal situation that looks better than it is. very dangerous coil.

risen · #5 09-07-2003, 12:21 PM

Wow, that's a ridiculous amount of betting on a busted straight/K high hand. Getting it heads up with the cutoff with a raise was pretty good and you probably got 1 or 2 players who were ahead of you out of the hand, but the CO has cold called everything from preflop until now, he's got a piece of something, and firing that last $80 into the pot isn't going to move him. That said, there's no other way for you to win the pot other than bluffing the river, A bluff that in this situation I'd say would work less than 5% of the time.

skp · #6 09-07-2003, 05:36 PM

Well, you have no choice but to bluff on the river. I don't know how anyone can even remotely consider not betting.

The real issue is the turn raise. Not one that should be made routinely but certainly one that can and should be made occasionally given that:

1. The CO probably does not have a set (he would have 3 bet preflop with QQ,99,88 or even 66), or a straight (he wouldn't coldcall preflop with any 2 card combination that makes a straight on this turn board). Note that he knows that you, in the sb and being the second caller of the preflop raise (and anticipating a third in the bb) could have a set or any one of JT, T7 or 75 for straights.

2. The CO probably does not have a Queen as he did not raise on the flop.

The CO probably has a very marginal hand or a heart draw. Your checkraise has a fair chance of success (at least vis a vis the CO - not so sure about the bb). But once CO calls the turn...for god's sake, you better be prepared to bet the river no matter what comes.

PokerBabe(aka) · #7 09-07-2003, 07:17 PM

But once CO calls the turn...for god's sake, you better be prepared to bet the river no matter what comes.

SKP- I disagree. C/o thinks and then calls a raise on the turn. I suspect he has something that beats Coilean, if even A high. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Babe [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

skp · #8 09-07-2003, 07:58 PM

Well, I missed the "he thinks a bit part" which implies that CO does not have a heart draw (unless his pause is calculated to mislead Coilean which BTW is a very good move and one that should be used more).

Even so, the pot is too big to just give up. Coilean must bluff IMO. CO may well have called the turn with a view to folding unless he improves. Granted, that's not the usual scenario but it doesn't have to be; That scenario will occur enough times to make the bluff positive EV.

Almost all good players I know (me included) have a problem with not bluffing often enough on the river. We get gun shy after being called time and time again. But you have to keep telling yourself that even though the bluff will fail a very high percentage of the time, the other guy only has to fold a small percentage of the time to make the bluff positive Ev.

IMO, and with respect, the correct play is to bluff in this spot.

mikelow · #9 09-07-2003, 08:03 PM

Just curious, but what happened to the St. Louis poker scene posts?

bruce · #10 09-07-2003, 08:28 PM

Good Post! Once you make a play at the pot with your checkraise you have to bet on the river. You have no other way to win unless you both check the river and your opponet has a worse busted hand. What happens if you check and then he bets with a busted hand? Are you going to call with a king high? I doubt it. At the Commerce unless you know your opponents these plays only work sparingly at best.
There are too many players who will call on the end even if it appears like they are hopelessly beat. Plus they also have no line on your play which will make them call more.
I think in general you are better off giving up on the turn, but in LA anything is possible.

Bruce