AA, should I keep raising?

[groo]

[ QUOTE ]
Your coldcall on the river is awful.

[/ QUOTE ]

I realize I'm most likely wrong here, but with nearly 30BB I'm going to have to cold call here. I'm almost certainly beaten and obviously can't raise, but this is Party .50/1 and I think I win this 1 out of 7 times. The cold call costs me 2BB, folding the (improbable) winner costs me 29.5BB.

As stated, I'm probably wrong here...can someone tell me where?

[DCWildcat]

I'd agree with calling the river here. SB's play is very erratic here, and I think as a result he'll call and you'll only be facing 2 bets a reasonable percentage of the time (let's say between 20% and 33% of the time). That'll leave you an average of 9.5ish-10ish to 1 on your call. And the chances of you running into stupidity at a .5/1 table on party are much higher than 9 or 10 to 1. Desparation bluffs alone by SB account for that, let alone counterfeiting & general stupidity. Call.

[Dave G.]

[ QUOTE ]
I realize I'm most likely wrong here, but with nearly 30BB I'm going to have to cold call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

These two statements are at odds with each other. The pot is 30BB, which should tell you one thing: these people like their hands. And you have to call 2 on the river, which should tell you another thing: they still like their hands.

Why do you "have" to cold call here when you know you're beaten? I could understand you calling one closing the action for sanity purposes, even though I think that's a clear error too, but calling 2 in a pot you can't win is just burning money.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm almost certainly beaten and obviously can't raise, but this is Party .50/1 and I think I win this 1 out of 7 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is party, but loose passives can catch monster hands too. Loose passives don't raise it up when they have nothing. That's what's so great about playing with them; you know to get out of their way when they finally do find the nerve to bet at you.

This loose passive opponent is not betting, he's not check-raising, he's taking the line that screams MONSTER more than anything else. He's call/3-betting, and he did it twice.

What range of hands do you think a passive opponent is doing this with? Hell, I'd run for the hills if a TAG was doing it, because this is the one line where you know they mean business.

I don't think you'll win this hand 1 time in 1000.

[ QUOTE ]
The cold call costs me 2BB, folding the (improbable) winner costs me 29.5BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

2BB that would have been better used somewhere else. And SB can always raise behind you again for UTG to cap. Would you call another 2BB?

Aces are great but there is a time to lay them down.

[KaiShin]

For 1BB the river is an easy call. For 2BB and not even closing the action I can see a fold here. There's no way you're beating both these opponents.

[Russ McGinley]

SB likely has KK or QQ.

UTG+2 open-limped and called a 3-bet. Then he flat called SB's bet on the flop, then 3-bet when it came back around to him. He did the same on the turn. He then went ahead and raised the river. I would expect to see a boat here. Since he raised the river, I can go ahead and discount him having 96, 94, or 64, unless he's an idiot and doesn't realize his two pair just got counterfieted.

This is a tough hand to get away from. UTG+2, if he indeed does have a set, played it beautifully, figuring you and SB both have overpairs and will continue to ram and jam. That afforded him the luxury of flat calling SB twice and 3-betting when it came back around. That being said, you could definitely fold the river here but its tough to lay down aces when the board isn't real threatening, although in the future, you should be careful to watch out for that flop play by UTG+2.

[groo]

that explains it nicely and helps a great deal...thanks