Why Current Online Win Rates Won't Persist - Page 3

scrapperdog · #1 12-02-2005, 12:10 AM

This post is lame. How many times do we have to see the same post over and over? At least this one has a twist in that now people from 3rd world countries are gonna take poker over but still it is the same post that is posted here at least once every 2 weeks. Almost every person in this forum knows current win rates will not last forever, and every time the person that posts this is shocked they did not discover something new. This is like telling a person a wheel is round ... every 2 weeks.

What makes someone think they can turn an army of 3rd world factory workers into winning poker players? Only 8% of the people win as it is. And almost nobody wins when they first start playing. You do realize that they are gonna have to reload their accounts multiple times before they start winning, if they are in fact good enough to be in the 8% that can win. I dont think spending a years salary in an effort to see if you can be sucessful in an area that 92% of people fail is going to attract a ton of poor people.

SinCityGuy · #2 12-01-2005, 11:14 PM

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Tons of suckers go to vegas to play blackjack and slots every year and lose. Yet they go back year after year.

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They also go for shows, meals, etc. Very few of them actually track how much they lose specifically to gambling. Many of them actually delude themselves into thinking they broke even or won a little bit. They can do this because all of their vacation expenses came out of the same pool of money.

Online, the losing player is faced with the prospect of having to refund his account. There is no way he can deny the cold reality that he is a loser, and many of them just quit at that point.

RikaKazak · #3 12-02-2005, 08:45 PM

don't forget about big tournament wins, people who get lucky, win $1 million in a tourny, often will give a lot of it back (yes I know taxes etc. take away) but they'll give it back and it'll just circulate.

Also, a lot of "sharks" are leaving too. I myself want to get out as soon as possible and just deal with the real estate I'm buying off my poker winnings. So in about 5 years my playing will drop from 25 hours a week 4-8 tabling to 5-10 hours a week 2 tabling (my favorite amount)

Also I myself play drunk 3/6 limit and I know I lose in that game, just entertainment to me to raise 7,2o UTG and crack AA, so there will be those players.

AND when online gets fill with other country pros, online may or may not get hurt, but if it gets hurt bad we'll just move to live play.

pyroponic · #4 12-02-2005, 08:57 PM

Don't forget BR and swings, getting a good BR together for $.5/1 or $1/2 might be a stretch, plus there'd more incentive to withdraw if that BR got to a decent size, and the natural poker swings may discourage them from playing much quicker than a U.S. microlimit player.

FlFishOn · #5 12-01-2005, 09:23 PM

The race to the bottom will be slow. Many barriers will keep the turd world out of the game for the bulk of this decade at least.

The quantity of collusive cheating will spike as the heat gets turned on and that will kill WRs first. Bots to follow.

#6 12-01-2005, 09:25 PM

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The race to the bottom will be slow. Many barriers will keep the turd world out of the game for the bulk of this decade at least.

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Would you be willing to name a few of the many?

FlFishOn · #7 12-01-2005, 09:33 PM

The biggest is the capital requirement. You don't go from dirt poor to DSL fired puter and BR.

There are many cultures where poker as a career would be unthinkable. Think Utah.

#8 12-01-2005, 09:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The biggest is the capital requirement. You don't go from dirt poor to DSL fired puter and BR.

There are many cultures where poker as a career would be unthinkable. Think Utah.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are people with capital willing to invest if need be. I saw a site aimed at staking USA citizens, how much cheaper would an Indian or Brazilian be to employ?

And fyi, computers and internet are not uncommon in south america.

FlFishOn · #9 12-01-2005, 10:52 PM

"And fyi, computers and internet are not uncommon in south america. "

As is the Catholic church. Mama won't let Jose grow up to be a gambler.

CORed · #10 12-03-2005, 04:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The biggest is the capital requirement. You don't go from dirt poor to DSL fired puter and BR.

There are many cultures where poker as a career would be unthinkable. Think Utah.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't be serisous about Utah. Who do you think keeps the casinos in West Wendover and Mesquite in business?