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#2
12-30-2005, 12:44 PM
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Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
If you just call, and BB calls:
The pot will be $2,185. The CO will be getting great pot odds on his hand when you push in your remaining $395 post-flop. If the flop comes K 9 4 rainbow can you fold to a bet from CO? If you fold, you have $395 remaining. If CO wins and BB is out, you're ITM but almost definitely 3rd. If you fold, CO loses, now you're the short stack, and almost done with only $395. If you call his bet (or he calls yours), you're getting 4.5:1 pot odds and you probably have the best hand. Just push pre-flop or fold. (I'd push). If you and BB call, you have to push post-flop. Even if CO calls and beats you, you're something like 75% versus BB's random hand, so you'll still get third. So just push. If you call and BB folds, then I could see folding post-flop to survive, but I still couldn't based on the pot odds I'm getting, and the fact that I'm probably the in the lead anyway. 
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#4
12-30-2005, 12:45 PM
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Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
[ QUOTE ]
btw I think calling is probably the best, but you basically cant fold on the flop, its mainly just to encourage the BB to come along for the ride. [/ QUOTE ] For sure. I call knowing I'm going to the felt either way, but knowing that a call is more likely to tempt the BB into coming along than if I push.
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#5
12-30-2005, 12:48 PM
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Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] btw I think calling is probably the best, but you basically cant fold on the flop, its mainly just to encourage the BB to come along for the ride. [/ QUOTE ] For sure. I call knowing I'm going to the felt either way, but knowing that a call is more likely to tempt the BB into coming along than if I push. [/ QUOTE ] On the flip side, if you push, there is a chance that the CO will fold. I'd guess that the BB is more likely to push in his remaining 130 chips with the blinds at 75/150 than CO would be to call the all-in.
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#7
12-30-2005, 01:04 PM
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Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
[ QUOTE ]
Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then. Hint: He ain't folding. Ever. [/ QUOTE ] You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds. -So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO. -Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold. -Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance (edit: my estimate is 25%, given this is a $22) the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster. Thanks for the "hint".
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#8
12-30-2005, 01:15 PM
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Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then. Hint: He ain't folding. Ever. [/ QUOTE ] Apparently you can spend over a year reading this forum and still be a jackass, I'm dissapointed. You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds. -So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO. -Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold. -Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster. Thanks for the "hint". [/ QUOTE ] Getting 3.3 to 1 on his money there is not a single hand he'd fold here, not even 32o and I'm willing to wager that his hand is a lot better than 32o (or other random junk) since BB is shortstacked (2xbb) and they're on the bubble. Honestly, I don't expect anything less than Ax+/K9+/QT+/22+. I actually think it's correct to fold here, but I'd never do it. I'd call and hope BB calls also.
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#9
12-30-2005, 01:32 PM
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Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then. Hint: He ain't folding. Ever. [/ QUOTE ] Apparently you can spend over a year reading this forum and still be a jackass, I'm dissapointed. You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds. -So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO. -Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold. -Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster. Thanks for the "hint". [/ QUOTE ] 1) What's with the personal insults? I'm pretty sure that doesn't fly around here. 2) [ QUOTE ] There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". [/ QUOTE ] "Pretty good chance" of CO folding? lol. Are you even considering the times where the short stack (correctly) folds when you push, due not to pot odds but the fact that it's a huge boost in his equity? Or the fact that tigerite pointed out that a call was more likely to get the shorite to come along? I think the fact that the shortie called here is clouding your judgement of how often a shortie does actually call in this situation. Also the idea that we have "pretty good chance" of getting the CO to fold is silly.
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