A6o vs 2+2er

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however, with TQK on the board, you can't be so sure that i'm drawing very thin if i am behind.

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That's right. The truth of the matter (whether Hock_ wants to admit it or not) is that the king scared him.

What worse hand? JJ maybe. That's about it.

[krishanleong]

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What worse hand? JJ maybe. That's about it.

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Folding out a naked ace is worth .6 BBs. He has 7 outs against you which is about 15% equity. Folding out A6 is worth .8.

Krishan

Of course it scared me. Fear is a valuable survival instict.

But I'm guessing wheelz has pretty solid stats and he raised preflop, so that narrows his holdings. The only hand that he's likely to have and that isn't drawing thin and that I'm ahead of on the turn is JJ. Maybe JTs. Since I'm calling with 2nd pair and (the ass end) of a gutshot anyway, I wanted to see the river for no more than one bet. The check could also induce a bluff on the turn and/or a call on the river from a weaker hand.

[wheelz]

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Yeah, because several of your outs are tainted. Best scenario for you is him having two pair. Then you have all of your 9 outs. Other than that you are almost always in bad shape for a turn raise.

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obviously my jack outs are good, in order to call a turn cr i don't need the ace outs to be good, just the 6's. so as long as he doesn't have 66 or J9, i'd have to call if he cr'd me on the turn. i'm not going to go through hand combos but i think i'd have to call the raise.

having said that, no i don't think i should bet the turn.

I'm sure your math is correct (though I'd be interested to see the calculations), but a turn bet probably isn't folding an A because of the gutshot (or at least you need to discount the value of the play by the likelihood that it does fold it).

Then compare that to the negative EV of a bet when I'm behind. And add the potential positive effects of inducing a bluff or call on the river.

[krishanleong]

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a turn bet probably isn't folding an A because of the gutshot

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That is a good reason to bet. It's very complicated for the reasons you specified.

I got the numbers from pokerstove. I just stoved your hands and then A2 to get the equity of a naked ace.

Krishan

[Subfallen]

I would bet the turn intending for that bet to be the last of mine going into the pot. The reason is that he will have a club draw/straight draw/A-high hand quite a bit, and NONE of those hands will river-bluff on a board this Broadway without having you beat.

The way you played, again I don't think a good opponent is bluffing on a board that should hit a PFR so hard. River looks like a fold to me.

Edit - Hock_ played this hand perfectly IMO...the turn check is beautiful because he will induce more than his fair share of auto-bluffs and also balances the Shania of his turn play after c/raising a draw.

[tor]

I like your line. The check-raise, check, looks like a free card play on the FD, w/ a bluff at the end. Anything else just looks too fancy to me. Then again, these stakes are way above my head, as I'm a micro player.

[stigmata]

I'm still not convinced that calling is the right move. What legitimate hands could he call with preflop and check-raise the flop with, that we beat at showdown?

89s (with the double gs), J8c, J7c, 67c. Anything else I'm missing? Pretty much anything else is edging into complete bluff territory.

Villain is also going to know that this flop would have hit hero's hand a large portion of the time, and that it is not a good flop to take a stab at. Even being generous, he can't be on a complete bluff much more than 5% or 10% of the time. Or is this where I am wrong?

In contrast, there is a massive number of hands that beat us. Perhpas someone can show me the numbers to prove otherwise, but I'm just not convinced that villians hand range is wide enough for the odds being offered.