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Old 12-11-2005, 08:54 PM
EverettKings EverettKings is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Williamsburg, VA
Posts: 86
Default Re: Tourney hand

OK this is a little math problem.

You're risking 30k to win at most 7500, but the all in fellow probably has you beat a little bit (20% or so) of the time, so let's say if everyone folds your equity is 6000. If you check assume MP checks and your equity is like 3000.

If you get called by air its basically a push (though you win a few chips if only one guy calls with air). We can almost throw these cases out, but he has to fold air often enough for you to make up the 30k you lose the few times you're beat. Since you're risking 30k to win 3k, he has to fold air 10 times as often as he has a better hand. For example, he has a hand 5% of the time but folds air 80% of the time, then it's profitable. But if he has a hand like 10% of the time, then no matter how often they fold air it's no good.

I personally think you run into a wussily played overpair like 15% of the time. And I think air folds like 80% of the time. The bottom line is that I think you run into a hand too often, but that's the grey area thats up for discussion.

Everett
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