Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > Tournament Poker > Multi-table Tournaments

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #11  
Old 12-01-2005, 02:58 PM
zambonidrivr zambonidrivr is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 295
Default Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK

not shoving here is wrong.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 12-01-2005, 02:59 PM
wiggs73 wiggs73 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 183
Default Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK

at first glance, i thought a squeeze play might would be good b/c of 'defining your hand' and all that. however, just on instict, i feel like if you do that, you'll get at least 1 caller. so now you take a flop, albeit in position, with a pot that's around 7k and a stack that's around 11k. Not necessarily an ideal situation to be in. you also open yourself up to a stop-n-go of sorts and i hate putting in 1/4 of my stack just to have to fold the flop when i miss.

so after that, i thought i liked a call the best. i probably still do. the way the hand played out, i would have to think about dumping it and only because the button called and you don't have a read on him. readless, i have to assume that after an UTG raise, 2 callers, and a push on top of all of that, he would need 1 of 2 hands to flat call this. utg and utg+1 folding helps (and in hindsight (and ignoring the push and call), maybe a squeeze play would have worked) but I still think it's too likely that your AK is dominated.

one other thought that i had is a simple pre-flop push the first time action is to you. i understand this isn't a $5.50 where AJ and KQ will call you, but with all the dead money in the pot, maybe it isn't horrible...? i still like the call better though. interesting hand.

edit to say: the 2nd time action gets to you, you only have t800 of a t15k stack invested. so getting away leaves you in about the same shape as if you had just folded some random hand PF.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 12-01-2005, 03:09 PM
schwza schwza is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 113
Default Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I hate your reraise, dump the hand next time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you that sure someone is on AA or KK? The call does look make it seem like a possibility, but with all that money in the middle...

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the button almost never folds here. i think he has exactly AQ once in a while, and less than AQ rarely.

it's hard to know what the CO has. i know that i would not try to make this big squeeze play with a strong hand. i'm not getting cute with 67s very often - it's almost always AQ+ / 99+, and usually AK / JJ+. but i recognize it wouldn't be a totally crazy play for him to have 67s, so hero has some chance of having 33%+ equity.

Ks Ac 551161 40.21 783903 57.19 35690 2.60 0.415
Ad Qh 274700 20.04 1060364 77.36 35690 2.60 0.213
7h 6h 509203 37.15 857723 62.57 3828 0.28 0.372

this, i think, is very unlikely though.

more likely is that both have QQ-, which is good but not great.

Ks Ac 499339 36.43 867148 63.26 4267 0.31 0.365
Qd Qh 626101 45.68 740386 54.01 4267 0.31 0.458
Td Th 241047 17.58 1125440 82.10 4267 0.31 0.177

it's moderately better to push against these hands than fold, but not by much.

against AQ and TT:

Ks Ac 464795 33.91 887112 64.72 18847 1.37 0.345
Ad Qh 274958 20.06 1076949 78.57 18847 1.37 0.207
Td Th 612154 44.66 754390 55.03 4210 0.31 0.448

here you're in ok shape for the main pot. if TT is the bigger stack, you're in kinda bad shape for the side (one A is killed), but if it's AQ, then you're in great shape.

AK v KK v QQ is very bad regardless of who has which hand (two K's are dead if you're "racing" with the deeper QQ guy).

Ks Ac 344965 25.17 1017209 74.21 8580 0.63 0.254
Qd Qh 244851 17.86 1120235 81.72 5668 0.41 0.180
Kd Kh 772358 56.35 589816 43.03 8580 0.63 0.566

and i don't even need to mention if one has AA.

there is, however, 4.3k in dead money in the middle (assuming no antes). that's about the only redeeming feature of this push. but i think that the button is going to KK/AA quite frequently, so i have to fold. you're not getting your money in that great unless no one has a pair (or if button has AQ- you're in pretty good shape) and you're getting in horrible if button has the likely AA.

the first cold call is fine. you don't really want to get a-i preflop for 65x bb's with utg.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 12-01-2005, 03:10 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK

I dont mind the smooth call to the UTG raise. Buttons range is prob around 99-JJ, A10s+ AJo+. I feel the pot is very large and you have a premium holding. I could see CO holding a middle PP hoping everyone would fold or at best he was up against a race. For this reason I think your push is fine. By flat calling the 6k it is very likley Button has some of the same outs. But say he has AQ, you want to get all his money out there as well so if we dont hit we still profit vs losing 6k to a medium pair if me miss.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 12-01-2005, 03:14 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK

I think UTG is out of the hand by the time action is on hero.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 12-01-2005, 03:42 PM
Sam T. Sam T. is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: St Louis, MO
Posts: 160
Default Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK

[ QUOTE ]
the first cold call is fine. you don't really want to get a-i preflop for 65x bb's with utg.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have to get all-in. Raise to 2500-3000.

The problem with the smooth call is that you create a situation in which players in LP may come over the top with marginal holdings. The initial push could easily be a steal of sorts (and a pretty good play if he's got any kind of hand), and it is possible because we've done nothing to force him to define his hand. Right now he's thinking "I've got t6000, there's a ton of money in the pot, and other than the original raiser, nobody's shown any strength. I'm pushing my 99." Re-raise, and it will keep you out of this situation. If he pushes over the top of a re-raise, and then THAT bet is called, you have a better idea where you stand.

Another reason I don't like the smooth call is that with one other player already calling, you're quite possibly looking at even more players coming along thanks to pot odds. While it allows you to get away from a missed flop more cheaply, you essentially need to hit two-pair or beter to bet with much confidence. If the flop comes Axx, and there is a lot of action in front, how happy are you?

And another poster said that folding here is okay, since you've only invested t800. No, no, no. It doesn't matter if you, the button, or the Flying Spaghetti Monster put those chips in the pot. Do you see why?

That said, I'm beginning to see the logic behind folding. I do smell a lot of dead outs in the folded hands. But, boy would I be unhappy to see 99 and JJ.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 12-01-2005, 04:13 PM
schwza schwza is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 113
Default Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the first cold call is fine. you don't really want to get a-i preflop for 65x bb's with utg.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have to get all-in. Raise to 2500-3000.


[/ QUOTE ]

i guess what i should've said was that i didn't like the idea of getting ai for that much and i also didn't like the idea of folding to TT-QQ's reraise. on the plus side, based on the read, utg will likely fold and fishy utg will likely call. i still think calling is a little better though.

[ QUOTE ]


The problem with the smooth call is that you create a situation in which players in LP may come over the top with marginal holdings. The initial push could easily be a steal of sorts (and a pretty good play if he's got any kind of hand), and it is possible because we've done nothing to force him to define his hand. Right now he's thinking "I've got t6000, there's a ton of money in the pot, and other than the original raiser, nobody's shown any strength. I'm pushing my 99." Re-raise, and it will keep you out of this situation. If he pushes over the top of a re-raise, and then THAT bet is called, you have a better idea where you stand.



[/ QUOTE ]

when you "make someone define their hand" you also define your own hand for them. one advantage of smooth-calling is that you might lure CO (or someone else) into pushing, which you would then turbo-call. it might be 99, but it also might be AJ.


[ QUOTE ]


Another reason I don't like the smooth call is that with one other player already calling, you're quite possibly looking at even more players coming along thanks to pot odds. While it allows you to get away from a missed flop more cheaply, you essentially need to hit two-pair or beter to bet with much confidence. If the flop comes Axx, and there is a lot of action in front, how happy are you?



[/ QUOTE ]

pretty happy. my chips are going in there because the pot is humungous.

(obviously if there is a ton of action i might fold)

[ QUOTE ]


And another poster said that folding here is okay, since you've only invested t800. No, no, no. It doesn't matter if you, the button, or the Flying Spaghetti Monster put those chips in the pot. Do you see why?



[/ QUOTE ]

i understand that what you're saying is obviously correct, but there's some element of truth. if there is 300 in the pot and you're the bb and the button pushes for 1k, you're getting better odds if there's a dead SB and you have to call 700 vs if the SB folded and you have to call 800.

[ QUOTE ]


That said, I'm beginning to see the logic behind folding. I do smell a lot of dead outs in the folded hands. But, boy would I be unhappy to see 99 and JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

from my previous post:

Ks Ac 499339 36.43 867148 63.26 4267 0.31 0.365
Qd Qh 626101 45.68 740386 54.01 4267 0.31 0.458
Td Th 241047 17.58 1125440 82.10 4267 0.31 0.177

there's 6240*3 + 800*2 + 300 in the main, so you have 7526 cEV in the main.

in the side, say you're 45% to win. i think this is generous because it's very likely that utg and utg+1 folded at least 1 A/K, but ignore that for now.

the side is (15228-6240)*2, so you have cEV 8089 in the side. total cEV is 15615, and you paid 15228-800 = 14428, so your fold costs you ~1.2k. throw in the fact that gambling is bad, hero is higher skill than avg, and utg and utg+1 probably folded a bunch of your outs, then you're really not going to be kicking yourself at all.

the times you really win out are when button has AQ, or when button folds and CO doesn't have AA. the only way this play is any good is if CO folds somewhat often, i think.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 12-01-2005, 05:26 PM
EverettKings EverettKings is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Williamsburg, VA
Posts: 86
Default Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK

Man..... I muck this.

Good player makes an enormous reraise after UTG raises 4x and two people cold call? If he had a real hand, could he reraise less than all in? What do you do with KK there?

I guess he *might* be making a move with something like 56s, which would be pretty badass. But you said hes good an not necessarily tricky, and seems like such a ballsy move that few players can make it. More likely he has exactly AK, with some chance of QQ, JJ, KK, and AA in that order of likelihood. Basically your edge here is pretty fuzzy, and when the button comes in and cold calls a raise that fat (note that he didn't reraise all in to isolate, which he'd likely do with non AA/KK hands that he's playing), I think you're in trouble.

Basically I vote dump it. Though if you're going to play, that must mean that you put CO on a tricky-ish range and button on a JJ type hand, in which case taking a flop with chips left to bet is bad. It's push or fold but I vote fold.

Though preflop I think the cold call is fine with deep enough stacks (let UTG/UTG+1 hang themselves on AQ/AJ).

Everett
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 12-01-2005, 05:41 PM
locutus2002 locutus2002 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 469
Default Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK

I'd be concerned about Button's smooth call.

Button is looking at an UTG miniraise, and (you) a tag call. CO doesn't have to have much to push.

Button is either trapping with a monster or is conservative and has a hand like, ak, jj. In any event he's laying you 2 1/2: 1 to call.

Your FE=zero, and you are behind so I wouldn't push. With your stack, I'd probably fold.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 12-01-2005, 05:47 PM
intheflatfield intheflatfield is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 195
Default Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK

[ QUOTE ]
when you "make someone define their hand" you also define your own hand for them. one advantage of smooth-calling is that you might lure CO (or someone else) into pushing, which you would then turbo-call. it might be 99, but it also might be AJ.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry, but to me this falls under FPS and is very rarely a correct line.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:40 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions Inc.