|
|
#1
11-21-2005, 08:57 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Chance at an XBox purchase
It is currently 5:42 local time.
At 8pm, a local store is giving out tickets to the first 250 people that have lined up for them. 50 of these tickets will be called and the people who hold them will be able to purchase an xbox 360. An XBox 360 can probably be resold for about $500 profit. People with tickets are admitted to the draw area at 10pm, and draws begin at that time and end sometime after midnight. The ticket must be present for a person to purchase the xbox. I have two friends who are currently at the front of the line. They believe it will be possible for another friend and I to join them closer to 8. It also seems to be possible for us to give them the tickets we receive and then leave. Each ticket is worth 50/250 * 500 = $100 in EV. Ideally, I would like to receive a ticket and then sell it for 100 bucks to someone, but I don't believe this is possible. Hopefully the four of us can agree to split the profits of any xboxes we 'win', in order to reduce variance, although even if we all end up playing individually it dosen't really change anything. Anyways... my question is, since I would prefer to receive the value (or close to it) of the game up front and reduce my risk, what would you sell a ticket for? I presume it would take some time to receive and sell the xbox, and if it isn't possible to give the tickets to our friends, it would cost a few hours tonight. I have some work to do and have to get up early tomorrow to do much more, so my time tonight and tomorrow is worth something to me, though I don't know how much. Would you give up any EV here to worry a lot less about winning the raffle then selling the xbox, and if so, how much? 
|
|
#2
11-21-2005, 10:57 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Chance at an XBox purchase
If your time was worth something to you then the xbox raffle isn't an EV of 100 but much less because 4/5 of the time you aren't going to get anything.
|
|
#3
11-22-2005, 01:49 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Chance at an XBox purchase
[ QUOTE ]
If your time was worth something to you then the xbox raffle isn't an EV of 100 but much less because 4/5 of the time you aren't going to get anything. [/ QUOTE ] WOW. YOU ARE SO RIGHT. Ok but for now let's pretend I'm right... I made a deal with the other friends that ended up giving me about $96 in EV for my ticket and I didn't have to wait around at all. Guess you guys don't care but its okay, i suppose.. thanks anyways.
|
|
#4
11-22-2005, 02:47 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Chance at an XBox purchase
[ QUOTE ]
If your time was worth something to you then the xbox raffle isn't an EV of 100 but much less because 4/5 of the time you aren't going to get anything. [/ QUOTE ] That is why his EV is 100 and not 500.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
