NFL System Teasing 1983-2004

MasterShakes · #1 08-09-2005, 06:01 PM

In Stanford Wong's book, Sharp Sports Betting, in his section on NFL teasers, he emphasizes the importance, in all teasers, of teasing to "capture" both the 7 and the 3 (the key numbers in football betting). This advice pertains only to NFL teasers. He points to results from 1990-2000 for support.

Essentially, we are looking to tease in any situation where the line is 1.5, 2, 2.5, 7.5, 8, 8.5. We want to tease all dogs of 1.5 to 2.5, and all favorites of 7.5 to 8.5. This captures both the 3 and the 7.

I tested this theory against all results from 1983 to 2004. It's a winning system. However, I must emphasize the importance of using a sportsbook that offers +100 odds on 6-point, 2-team teasers. You MUST get even money on these. It's terrible not to, as there are several sportsbooks out there that offer these odds. Check out the top books at Bill Dozer's SBR.

In 1983-2004...
Teasers went 857-760-8 for 52.999% winners, +97 units.
When teams were within the range specified above, the teased line went 815-310-4 for 72.47% winners. This is in excess of what is needed to win when given +100 odds.

In 1983-1989...
Teasers went 295-256-6 for 53.54% winners, +39 units.
Individual teasing opportunities went 279-92-3 for 75.2% winners.

In 1990-2000...
Teasers went 433-352-2 for 55.16% winners, +81 units.
Individual teasing opportunities went 402-154-1 for 72.3% winners.

In 2001-2004...
Teasers went 129-152 for 45.9% winners, -23 units.
Individual teasing opportunities went 135-64 for 67.8% winners.

Recent years have obviously not been kind to this system...

2001 - 19-36
2002 - 76-29
2003 - 20-40
2004 - 14-47

My only recommendation from all of this is that if you are looking for teasers to play, I wouldn't play anything that doesn't capture both the 7 and the 3. You might want to look for these situations that arise and then combine it with good handicapping to isolate more likely winners. If you play every teaser available, you will obviously be playing a lot of teasers. There were a few weeks over the years that had you playing 28 different teaser combinations, which can have you playing nearly half of your bankroll on the outcome of 8 different games.

I hope this is somehow helpful.

Easy E · #2 08-09-2005, 08:24 PM

Thanks for doing all of the work, or at least consolidating the data from other sources.

null · #3 08-10-2005, 12:11 AM

Good post. By the way, if you're doing all of the analysis, you might want to exclude road favorites like Wong suggests (since they have historicly been the worst-performing subset ATS I think he says).

BTW check out Fezzik's Place. Fezzik is one of the best football cappers out there. He is a tout, but from what I can determine, one of the few good/honest ones. He's giving away his football picks this season to make up for his lack of success this past NBA season. He mentions using teasers in this fashion in this thread. Supposedly the effect is even greater in preseason games because of the low totals and coaches not looking to blow out other teams. Also, Fezzik referenced the teaser portion of Wong's book the the air when he was hosting the "You Can Bet on It" radio show.

(Doh, I just saw you mentioned Fezzik already in another post - well, maybe someone else will find my post useful)

sublime · #4 08-10-2005, 02:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Good post. By the way, if you're doing all of the analysis, you might want to exclude road favorites like Wong suggests (since they have historicly been the worst-performing subset ATS I think he says).

BTW check out Fezzik's Place. Fezzik is one of the best football cappers out there. He is a tout, but from what I can determine, one of the few good/honest ones. He's giving away his football picks this season to make up for his lack of success this past NBA season. He mentions using teasers in this fashion in this thread. Supposedly the effect is even greater in preseason games because of the low totals and coaches not looking to blow out other teams. Also, Fezzik referenced the teaser portion of Wong's book the the air when he was hosting the "You Can Bet on It" radio show.

(Doh, I just saw you mentioned Fezzik already in another post - well, maybe someone else will find my post useful)

[/ QUOTE ]

Fezzik is a great NFL handicapper, but should be avoided when it comes to other sports.

MasterShakes · #5 08-10-2005, 06:48 PM

I tested this system with home teams only, since they tend to do better in these teasers. It did much better.

270-198, 57.7%, +72 units from 1983 to 2004.

I would recommend playing these very strongly. A 15.4% edge when you get the odds at +100 is nothing to sneeze at.

Again, the last two seasons were weak at 4-10 and 7-18 respectively for -17 units. I'm not saying the system is "due" or anything, but the 1983-2002 record of 259-171 for 60.2% and +88 units should not be ignored.

ftball0000 · #6 08-11-2005, 02:35 AM

Quick question about teasers,

Say you have 3 teams that fall into the +1.5-2.5 range
Buf +1.5
Mia +1.5
Den +2

So you tease them to 7.5, 7.5, and 8 repsectfully. Now is this done on 3 teasers (buf,mia mia,den and buf,den) or 2 teasers (buf,mia mia,den) or 1 3 team teaser?

Thanks in advance
-Ftball

MasterShakes · #7 08-11-2005, 03:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Quick question about teasers,

Say you have 3 teams that fall into the +1.5-2.5 range
Buf +1.5
Mia +1.5
Den +2

So you tease them to 7.5, 7.5, and 8 repsectfully. Now is this done on 3 teasers (buf,mia mia,den and buf,den) or 2 teasers (buf,mia mia,den) or 1 3 team teaser?

Thanks in advance
-Ftball

[/ QUOTE ]

You would do 3 separate 2-team, 6-point teasers (this is the only type of teaser this system covers, though I have read that it works on 6.5 and 7-point teasers with more teams with very slightly different parameters):

1) Team #1 w/ #2
2) Team #1 w/ #3
3) Team #2 w/ #3

sublime · #8 08-11-2005, 02:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Quick question about teasers,

Say you have 3 teams that fall into the +1.5-2.5 range
Buf +1.5
Mia +1.5
Den +2

So you tease them to 7.5, 7.5, and 8 repsectfully. Now is this done on 3 teasers (buf,mia mia,den and buf,den) or 2 teasers (buf,mia mia,den) or 1 3 team teaser?

Thanks in advance
-Ftball

[/ QUOTE ]

You would do 3 separate 2-team, 6-point teasers (this is the only type of teaser this system covers, though I have read that it works on 6.5 and 7-point teasers with more teams with very slightly different parameters):

1) Team #1 w/ #2
2) Team #1 w/ #3
3) Team #2 w/ #3

[/ QUOTE ]

i want to also add that you need to be careful about how much you bet on the round robin of teasers. this is what i suggest:

in this spots its fairly simple, 3 teams, 3 total units wagered, 3 teasers. however, sometimes there are 4 teams that qualify and a round robin can look like this

a/b
c/d
a/c
a/d
b/c
b/d

so 4 teams, 6 teasers = 4 units/6 wagers = .66 unit on each teaser. a lot of people will just bet one unit on each teaser, and this is overexposure IMO. (there will be times when there are more than 4 teams that qualify)

MasterShakes · #9 08-11-2005, 02:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Quick question about teasers,

Say you have 3 teams that fall into the +1.5-2.5 range
Buf +1.5
Mia +1.5
Den +2

So you tease them to 7.5, 7.5, and 8 repsectfully. Now is this done on 3 teasers (buf,mia mia,den and buf,den) or 2 teasers (buf,mia mia,den) or 1 3 team teaser?

Thanks in advance
-Ftball

[/ QUOTE ]

You would do 3 separate 2-team, 6-point teasers (this is the only type of teaser this system covers, though I have read that it works on 6.5 and 7-point teasers with more teams with very slightly different parameters):

1) Team #1 w/ #2
2) Team #1 w/ #3
3) Team #2 w/ #3

[/ QUOTE ]

i want to also add that you need to be careful about how much you bet on the round robin of teasers. this is what i suggest:

in this spots its fairly simple, 3 teams, 3 total units wagered, 3 teasers. however, sometimes there are 4 teams that qualify and a round robin can look like this

a/b
c/d
a/c
a/d
b/c
b/d

so 4 teams, 6 teasers = 4 units/6 wagers = .66 unit on each teaser. a lot of people will just bet one unit on each teaser, and this is overexposure IMO. (there will be times when there are more than 4 teams that qualify)

[/ QUOTE ]

There were a couple times when 8 teams qualified for the less selective (both home and visitor) system. This means 28 teasers. 28 full units on 8 games would not be wise.

homedog · #10 08-11-2005, 03:41 PM

There's a reason they're called teasers.

The real problem is when you go 1 for 2 and lose the entire bet, whereas you would have just lost the vig if you when 1 and 1 on 2 regular wagers.

I don't do teasers anymore. I just take the side I would have wanted to tease. A bookie friend of mine has told me that teasers and parlays is where people get killed.

Plenty of games do not fall within 6 points of the spread. The spread is just to get even money bet both ways. Not a prediction of where the final score should fall.