Me vs Scotty Nguyen

[PokerForMath]

My thoughts on the play. First, I think either he has an uncanny ability to read these situations and fold (he did make some huge laydowns earlier), I misread the boards and he had two-pair in which case we could argue he might have folded with a mere pair and I just made the move at the wrong time, or he is vulnerable to this play when I have a big hand.

Consider this. Next time I play Scotty heads up, if the board comes this way and but I have KQ. I am still going to check the flop. I am still going to make a decent bet on the turn. And, I am still going to move in on the river. And, unless I have a tell that I don't know about, he is still going to call with his one pair and I will double up.

Also, I think one person said just shove pre-flop. I think that's a different play. The difference is that Scotty had already donated over 2000 to the pot. There was serious money there to take and while I was not short stacked, I needed to accumulate chips. It was 30 minutes into the round and I felt it was time to grow my chips. Now, maybe Scotty is the wrong guy, period, to try to take chips from if you saw the WPT season three where he called Johnny Juanda's all in with something like A8? Maybe he just won't fold big moves on principle.

[SharkBait]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you mean he had two-pair? Were you there and saying I mis-read the board? If so, are you saying that he called only b/c he had two pair and would have folded had he only had one pair, weak kicker?

[/ QUOTE ]

Two pair = QQ33. You said the board paired 3s.

[mts]

it looks like you played it like an overpair. he made a great call, thats all there is to it. Maybe you had a tell :P

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
it looks like you played it like an overpair. he made a great call, thats all there is to it. Maybe you had a tell :P

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not really how most people play an overpair unless they are looking to go broke.

I don't think Scotty's call on the river was anything special. Let's break this hand down and analyze each street:

pf. 500 in antes (assuming 10 players, maybe it is only 450 or even 400). Folded around to Scotty who completes, puts 300 into a pot with 1400, so now there is 1700 in it.

Hero Raises 1000, which is pretty odd. Pot is now 2700 and Scotty calls getting 2.7:1.

So is the raise to 1K a sweetener with a big pair? An attempted steal? Value bet from a good hand? All possible at this point.

Flop comes ten high (I am assuming ragged rainbow). Check Check. Ok, we haven't really ruled anything out yet, though small pocket pairs (not set up) are looking less likely.

Turn comes a queen. Scotty now has tpwk and checks. Hero bets 1300 into a pot of 3700. So scotty is getting 5:1.3 on his call. Sure, gotta call there, but he can still be way behind. Hero can put Scotty on two cards that are not drawing dead to a queen. That's about it. He's getting almost 4:1 with hero having 7K behind he may be able to get, so you cannot rule out hands like gut shots, middle pair and possibly even overs.

River comes a 3, pairing the board. That counterfeits some two pair hands, but really does not change much.

Scotty checks and Hero pushes for 7K into a 6.3K pot.

Stop. What just happened there. Why the over bet after those small bets? Does Hero have a sneaky 3 (A3s maybe?). Has he been slowplaying a set and fishing for a three? Why would he expect Scotty to call if he had a big hand? A big hand would like to get some more value out of this hand, and Scotty has not exactly been oozing strength. Could this be a marginal hand like KQ that is betting for value? That is a very bad play IMO here, since there are only a few hands that call you that don't beat you. So just what the hell is up with that bet out of nowhere?

So Scotty thinks either he has a huge hand and just got incredibly lucky that I have a queen or he is just trying to buy this pot. I am getting almost 2:1 on my call, and have almost 20BB if I call and lose. Scotty has got to believe he is ahead more than 1 time in 3 here. He's probably thinking he is ahead a lot more than half the time, because the bet just does not make sense.

To me this is an easy call. For those who say "That's why you overbet with a monster there, becuase you will arouse suspicion and get bad calls," remember, this only gets called by a hand that can beat a bluff (like a pocket pair less than Q's). So, most of the time you overbet with a big hand you get nothing. You cannot put Scotty on anything other than a hand that is big enough to call small bets getting great pot odds pre flop and on the turn.

[transmitt]

Should have checked behind baby!

[schwza]

great post.

[Tim H]

check pf or push
after that check/fold
You have nothing invested in this pot pf and he's letting you see the flop with a marginal hand with "monster" potential for free. Take it and fold unimproved.

not to sound rude but are you honestly a better player than him? If not, why are u trying to put a move on him with nothing. It seems the correct line would be to trap him putting a move on you when you have a good holding.

[mts]

[ QUOTE ]
That's not really how most people play an overpair unless they are looking to go broke.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So Scotty thinks either he has a huge hand and just got incredibly lucky that I have a queen or he is just trying to buy this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with both points. I was basically saying your 2nd quote above.

I mean, he was trying to represent a monster preflop. Then had such a big hand that let scotty have a free card. Then wanted a little more chips, saw that he'd call a small bet so went allin on the river when it protects him against 2 pair. He is representing a badly played overpair or a bluff. (to me)

your analysis is very good however.

[Scooterdoo]

Let's look at the way you both played it.

First Scotty:

It looks very standard. He doesn't have much and wants to outplay you post flop so simply calls. I'm sure some significant % of the time he'll raise you trying to steal, but since you're short-stacked he might be a bit leary of putting in a raise, having you push with a so so hand like Ax and then being forced to call based on pot odds with a dog hand like Q8 which stinks against most hands so his simple complete seems very reasonable. The flop looks fairly tame so he checks. I guess one could argue that he should make a strong bet here, but nothing wrong with checking. On the turn he hits top pair. He is pretty sure he has you so is probably trying to let you bet it for him which you do -- if he bets himself he figures you will fold and he gets nothing. You do his dirty work and he just calls. On the river he again feels he has the best hand so lets you bet it. He isn't too concerned with your all-in given that if you really had a better hand than he has you would be betting for value hoping for a call. He played it just fine; nothing fancy, just very solid.

Your play: Don't like it.

Preflop: You have a strong hand heads-up. The pot is nice as is. He has shown weakness with his simple call. Your 1k bet is very weak. He has to call it. Now if you are doing this to simply build the pot, you must bet strong at a tame flop which you didn't. I think you either check preflop to see if you can trap him with a great flop (since he's aggressive, he will likely bet at a K or J high flop and you can call him down) or you just push preflop and take your chances -- your hand will play pretty well heads-up with most hands that he was likely calling with, so even if he calls your push, you have a reasonable chance of doubling up and getting back into the tournament.

Once the flop comes 10 high you either make a strong bet right there after he checks or just check it down unless something good comes. Your 1300 turn bet is meaningless because he's going to call you with most anything given the pot odds.

The river bet is your biggest mistake in my opinion. At this point you just turn over your cards and a good percentage of the time you win. True he could have a T or a worse pair, but he's so aggressive that he might also call you with any pair so you're beat no matter what. Like I said before, your push tells him that you're weak because if you were strong wouldn't you make a value bet here?

[tdp]

I played with Scotty for about 4 hours at the Bay 101 Shooting Star and I did not see one bluff get past him.His intuition is incredible.He's not afraid to gamble either.