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  #1  
Old 12-23-2005, 06:12 PM
tassie tassie is offline
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Default Value betting the river (again)

River bet?

player: 14/6.1.5


Cryptologic 2.00/4.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>


Final Pot: 8.75 BB.
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  #2  
Old 12-23-2005, 06:14 PM
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Default Re: Value betting the river (again)

Yes
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  #3  
Old 12-23-2005, 06:15 PM
Vote4Pedro Vote4Pedro is offline
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Default Re: Value betting the river (again)

Easy value bet
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  #4  
Old 12-23-2005, 06:18 PM
GTSamIAm GTSamIAm is offline
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Default Re: Value betting the river (again)

How often does he pay off on the river? His play looks like AT or maybe JJ. He could have a flush draw that he'll fold, though. That should push you off of betting. If he had KK or AA, you'd be the first to know. Since you're heads-up, he's paying you off with hands you probably beat, so I say go ahead and bet.
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  #5  
Old 12-23-2005, 07:16 PM
Eeegah Eeegah is offline
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Location: Raising 99 and flopping quads
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Default Re: Value betting the river (again)

^^^^^^^ He ain't folding a flush draw seeing as he'd have just, you know, made his flush.

Well let's go to the chalkboard:

Pays us off (+1 BB)
AT (12)
KTs (3)

Beats us (-1 BB):
JJ (6)

Waiting to c/r our ass (-2BB):
AQs AJs KQs (1 each)

So an EV for our bet would be:

[(1)(12+3) + (-1)(6) + (-2)(3)] / (12+3+6+3) = +0.125BB.

So assuming you don't trigger the rake with a bet then yes it's worth it.

I was actually leaning toward a no until I did the math [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Edit: is there a chance he could have openraised with 98s? I think I'd fold it but it's hard to say what others would do.
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  #6  
Old 12-23-2005, 08:13 PM
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Default Re: Value betting the river (again)

eeegah, if we feel comfortable folding to a raise, wouldn't those crushing c/r's count as -1BB? Also, we may need to factor in the possibility that he may not call with a worse hand such as AT. This would reduce our EV. Also, how does he beat us with JJ? I think I see JTs opening like this and playing this aggro on the flop. Overall, I think this is thinner than most think. What is a TAG villain calling us down with?
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  #7  
Old 12-23-2005, 08:15 PM
Eeegah Eeegah is offline
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Default Re: Value betting the river (again)

[ QUOTE ]
Also, how does he beat us with JJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, whoops
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  #8  
Old 12-23-2005, 08:44 PM
tassie tassie is offline
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Default Re: Value betting the river (again)

IC. Thanks for that. I have been relying on my intuition up until now. That Maths will come in very handy

One more question. Arn't there more comninations he would raise with preflop first in that would give him his flush? KJ or A10 spades for example. I know his PFR is only 6% and I am not after a long thread on preflop starting hands first in from MP2 but just two more spade raising hands means a river bet is -EV. Or am I working this out incorrectly.

He had J10 clubs BTW.
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  #9  
Old 12-23-2005, 08:47 PM
tassie tassie is offline
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Default Re: Value betting the river (again)

[ QUOTE ]
I think I see JTs opening like this

[/ QUOTE ]

Picked it like a nose
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  #10  
Old 12-23-2005, 09:08 PM
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Default Re: Value betting the river (again)

very easy value bet
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