Purely Formulaic SNG

[cagedman]

What do you folks think of the possibility of making a profit a the 10+1, 20+1 (say, 5-10% ROI) with nothing more than a player-ignorant decision tree?

A purely formulaic approach.

Think it's possible?

It is for No Limit ring (25NL, tested over 750,000 hands). I've done it, and I'd be willing to share in exchange for a low level SNG decision tree.

[pergesu]

Yes, you can write a bot that will beat the $11s and $22s

[cagedman]

Care to discuss the general concept (strictly in regards to actual play)? The idea of formulaic bubble play seems complicated to me as a successful ring player and a semi-green SNG player.

[flyingmoose]

Do a search for ICM. A bot would basically make all +$EV plays according to ICM, and that's all that's needed to beat the 11-33s.

[cagedman]

It seems like the difficult part would be weighting the results of the ICM computations against the likely results of an action. It's difficult to put people on a range of call hands at this level, so it's difficult to determine the relative frequency of wins, losses, etc. (i.e. for a given push/fold scenerio)

Maybe this point is not important at this level? (i.e. if a play is profitable with a conservative hand distribution, then it will only be more so with poorer play)

Thoughts?

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems like the difficult part would be weighting the results of the ICM computations against the likely results of an action. It's difficult to put people on a range of call hands at this level, so it's difficult to determine the relative frequency of wins, losses, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good points. But from my time experimenting with ICM, exact hand ranges don't change the EV of play that much. Basic tight, normal, and any two type ranges are all that are really necessary to figure out a reasonably accurate decision.

[cagedman]

That's what I was hoping for.

[flyingmoose]

By the way, if you're thinking about making a bot, I wouldn't advise it. Party is pretty good at catching them.

[cagedman]

I'm not--more interested in a mindless strategy for massive multitabling...

[pergesu]

How massive is massive? Plenty of people here 8-table with somewhat mindless play, and a number of guys 12-table. Just takes some practice.