How low would you go...

[Piers]

[ QUOTE ]
the ICM model does not account for position, blind or stack size. All very important in this situation.


[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously my ICM calcualtions are an approximation. To improve you could do a look ahead approach; include all possible results for the next hand in the mode. Certainly this would help to quantify the error in the first order ICM approach. Have you done this? My guess would be that the error is small, and the first order ICM approach is accurate enough for practical purposes.

[ QUOTE ]
Short stacks equity in the pot is irrelevant.


[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Just because the short stack is all in on the next hand, does not mean the short stack will automatically loose the hand.

[Piers]

Using stack sizes (519,83.5,13.5) I get a TEV of 3055
Using stack sizes (398.5,203,13.5) I get TEV of 3724

p = 3055/32724 = .821

Need to take a little more care with kings, but should still be OK if oppo is raising with well over half his hands.

The only contentious point appears to be, how loose the small blind needs to be before it is correct to defend with kings.

[Dan Mezick]

The short stack has about a 90% of being eliminated in the next two orbits; especially since the big stack will attack with almost any reasonable hand.

[Piers]

My guess would be closer to 85%, but you could be right.

Is your 90% estimate based on anything other than a blind guess?

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
x=% of time you call and win

Total chips = 6,150,000
Total prize money playing for = $1M ($250k already wrapped up for each)

Fold = 825k
825k/6150k = 13.4% * $1M = $134,146

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't quite understand this -- aren't you overlooking second place money?

With a stack of 825k, we'd have a 13.4% chance at first plus an 82% chance (approx.) at second, with let's say a 4.6% chance at third. So our equity on folding is not $134,146 but $555,500.

(13.4% x $1M) + (82% x $500K) + (4.6% x 250K) = $555,500.

[ QUOTE ]
Call and win = 2,015,000
2015000/6150000 = 32.8% * $1M = $327,642

[/ QUOTE ]
Should be more like $658,500.

(32.8% x $1M) + (65% x $500K) + (2.2% x 250K) = $658,500.

So that agrees with Fiskebent's post: because of the prize-payout schedule and the very short third stack, the value of your stack increases by only 18% if you double up.

Here are my complete ICM calculations:

You fold (Stacks are 5M, 1M, 150K)
$EV = 1000000/6150000 * $1000000 + ( you take 1st )
5000000/6150000 * 1000000/1150000 * $500000 + ( BigStack takes 1st, you 2nd )
150000/6150000 * 1000000/6000000 * $500000 + (ShortStack takes 1st, you 2nd )
5000000/6150000 * 150000/1150000 * $250000 + (BS 1st, SS 2nd)
150000/6150000 * 5000000/6000000 * $250000 (SS 1st, BS 2nd)

$EV = $162611 + $353482 + $2033 + $26511 + $5081

$EV = $549718

If you double up (Stacks are 4M, 2M, 150K):
$EV = 2000000/6150000 * $1000000 + ( you take 1st )
4000000/6150000 * 2000000/2150000 * $500000 + ( BigStack takes 1st, you 2nd )
150000/6150000 * 2000000/6000000 * $500000 + (ShortStack takes 1st, you 2nd )
4000000/6150000 * 150000/2150000 * $250000 + (BS 1st, SS 2nd)
150000/6150000 * 4000000/6000000 * $250000 (SS 1st, BS 2nd)

$EV = $325203 + $302515 + $4065 + $11344 + $4065

$EV = $647192

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
Always remember you're playing for first.

[/ QUOTE ]
First, sure. But you can avoid some situations on your way there. I would've called with TT in an instant if I had just a slightly lower stack myself. I would've folded a lot of hands if my stack would've been a bit bigger. I think 1M in this specific situation made things a bit tougher. If the shorty doubles or tripples up on the next hand, things aren't too cool anymore.

at this point i wouldnt be playing for first.. there is a huge dioff from 3rd to 2nd in pay. i owuld fold anything short of QQ b/c variance is a b**ch and u are in great shape for 2nd