98s.

[FreakDaddy]

If you called the turn bet, why aren't you calling the river bet? I don't get it. I think there's a fair amount of time that villian has over pair and missed draw + bluff to make the call profitable.

Any reads?

[-Skeme-]

That lead is tricky to me.. he expects me to raise it.


[ QUOTE ]
call river. U need to be ahead here less than 25%...U are probably ahead here ~60%.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure?


[ QUOTE ]
I think there a fair amount of time that villian has over pair and missed draw + bluff to make the call profitable.


[/ QUOTE ]

I just didn't put him on those hands at the time.. still don
t, really. Was convinced I was beat. Possibly a bad laydown. I'm not losing sleep.

[UOPokerPlayer]

I think adding your own thoughts in the OP help spurn a good discussion about the deeper parts of the hand.

So PT tells us this guy is really tight. Is this a weak lead on the flop, or standard? After he calls your raise, I put him on sets or something like 44,88-1010.

His turn lead is either trying to get a cheap showdown or do a donk-style "milking" of you with his newly found boat. Which kind of opponent is this? The kind that mini-bets his big hands because he's afraid of folding, or the kind that makes little bets in hopes you won't make him have to fold? Is he so aggressive post-flop that he'll do this with overs? Either way, I like calling and calling river. This makes the most from a weak hand, and loses the least to a bigger hand. I think raising at any point makes the worse hands go away.

Overall, PT stats are good, but they can mean different things for different players. I like to run PT for about a half hour to get a feel of the tables, and then open up GT+. This makes the stats I get more reliable, and helps work in my personal reads with PT's.

[SmileyEH]

I see a very tight player doing the exact same things with a small overpair, or also AA. River looks like a really bad fold IMO. Call/call is definitely best. I'd also raise the flop more, he's a tight player who limped UTG and then led a 765 flop, he's got a good hand in this spot.

-SmileyEH

[trevor]

[ QUOTE ]
call river. U need to be ahead here less than 25%...U are probably ahead here ~60%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno about the 60% part but....puke. Call the river.

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd also raise the flop more, he's a tight player who limped UTG and then led a 765 flop, he's got a good hand in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

A good hand in this spot isn't a small overpair.

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd also raise the flop more, he's a tight player who limped UTG and then led a 765 flop, he's got a good hand in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

A good hand in this spot isn't a small overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

My two comments aren't contradictory. Not only do they occur in different spots in the hand, I also said that by the river a small overpair or AA is consistent with the opponent's line, not most likely. Snide remarks like yours are really pointless if you actually want to discuss the merits of the hand, otherwise don't bother posting it.

-SmileyEH

Uh, a 15/6 limping UTG+1 after an UTG limper is consistant with AA?? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Villain wasn't the utg limper, he limped AFTER an UTG limper in UTG+1. If you want to discuss the hand, at least look at what is going on in it.

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, a 15/6 limping UTG+1 after an UTG limper is consistant with AA?? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Villain wasn't the utg limper, he limped AFTER an UTG limper in UTG+1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've seen it done...regardless, take AA out of his hand range and it's still a call on the river.

-SmileyEH

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
Snide remarks like yours are really pointless if you actually want to discuss the merits of the hand, otherwise don't bother posting it.

[/ QUOTE ]

That wasn't a snide remark. It was a legit comment about the possible holdings of Villain. I don't see how you can both put him on a "good hand" on the flop, which I don't consider a small overpair to be, while putting him on a different holding as the hand progresses. You've seen every street now, put him on a hand for good, or at least try and make it clear which street your read is for.

Aces in this spot is ludicrous.


[ QUOTE ]
I've seen it done...regardless, take AA out of his hand range and it's still a call on the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

And what does he have? The small overpair that can stand raises 4x his current lead and then lead again on the turn? That's definitely possible if he thinks I am bluffing, but I doubt he does. 88 is about all I see here. Does a PFR of 6 raise TT and up from this spot? I know I usually do and my PFR is the same.

I guess we'll never know. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]