Something new...

[Lmn55d]

i think you overestimate the difference in implied odds between calling the flop and raising it. He doesn't bet into you on the turn all the time for one thing. Also raising flop makes pot bigger so if you hit guys are more likely to peel with things like small club.

[krishanleong]

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i think you overestimate the difference in implied odds between calling the flop and raising it. He doesn't bet into you on the turn all the time for one thing. Also raising flop makes pot bigger so if you hit guys are more likely to peel with things like small club.

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Just because I talk like I think a flop call is good doesn't mean anything. I'm not sure what is better. There are lots of arguments each way and it's not clear. (I haven't done the EV calcs and I should).

Can you talk about times where you do call the flop with a flush draw? Generally speaking I'm always in the raise the flop because of equity + free card.

If he doesn't bet into me on the turn all the time, the value of a free card has to be dimished as well. I agree he doesn't lead everytime.

Krishan

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Raising the flop just has too much value not to in this situation.

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Can you quantify it? <scenarios snipped>

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It's a matter if pot equity. Do you get more equity on a flop raise or the turn raise?

The flop raise is strictly for value, you have little fold equity. The turn raise is definately value -EV, so the question becomes: does this turn raise have enough fold equity to overcome the flop equity you gave up by not raising the flop?

Fold equity is tough to quantify, but we can quantify our equity by value. We have 12 outs ~ 45% pot equity at the flop.

Scenario: flop raise
Flop raise = +3SB *.45 - 1SB(your cost to raise) = +.17BB
Turn = +1BB * .25 = .25BB (25% shot we made our hand and bet the turn for value, costs 0BB to take the free card)
River = +1BB * .45 = .45BB (we had a 45% of making the hand by the river)
Total = +.87BB

Scenario: Raise the turn as a semi-bluff on a miss.
Flop call = +0BB
Turn raise = (2BB * .45) - (2BB * .55) = -.1BB (we get .45*2BB if we hit or make it on the river, we lose 2*.55BB if we miss because we could still hit the river.)
River = +1BB * .45
Total = +.35BB

So, waiting until the turn to raise is a net -.52BB over raising the flop. The question is, does the added fold equity gain back more than .52BB? Adjust for the fact that the BB might come along and foil the fold equity, that we might make our hand on the turn and lose it on the river, and that we had fold equity in our flop raise line if we followed up on the turn.

And perhaps most important, if we do fold them out on the turn with a semi-bluff we lose our .45BB equity we'd get on the river on a made hand, which really means we're giving up .97BB (I think, the percentages on each permutation are starting to lose me...). And how do we know they won't fold to a raise when the flush hits if they'll fold when it doesn't hit?

I don't really know, seems like giving up the .52BB with all the caveats would require a lot of fold equity on the turn.

Do the numbers look ok? Seems like I always screw up something.

[colgin]

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(I haven't done the EV calcs and I should).


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You can look at my calcs above in this thread. I undercounted your outs however. But you could use that forumla making the necessary adjustments based on the numebr of outs you think youhave. I gave you only 9 but I think you in fact have more.

[krishanleong]

numbers look okay. I think. The thing is I think calling the flop and raising any street you hit/folding the river if you don't is a worthy line.

This turn raise is clearly dependent on your fold equity which because villian fires into 2 on a relatively uncoordinated flop doesn't seem good.

Krishan

[Zygote]

i would raise the flop and take a free card on the turn

[krishanleong]

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He doesn't bet into you on the turn all the time for one thing.

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I did my equity calcs and when he doesn't bet into you on the turn, you come out better calling the flop because you get a free card when you miss and 1 BB when you hit. When you raise the flop you just cost yourself the extra SB.

So him checking the turn is an argument for not raising the flop.

Krishan

[Lmn55d]

unless he is more likely to check when either a K or club comes

[krishanleong]

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unless he is more likely to check when either a K or club comes

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I'm not sure how to account for that in my calcs but you are correct. Can we call it a wash?

Krishan

[ArturiusX]

If I suspect the villians are thinking players (not even good players, just observant ones with a memory), I try to mix up how I play draws a bit to encourage getting paid off more. I don't think I'd neccesary make this play in this situation, but if I had been doing the standard "raise the flop, take the freebie" a few times I'd definitely consider this.