Bet or Check-Raise?

[WillyTrailer]

Super good live 10/20.

strangely tight preflop hand here.

folded to tight(only other tight player at the table), sligthly aggressive CO who open raises, button folds. I am in the sb with AhAd and I 3-bet. BB folds and CO calls. I put him on a medium pocket pair or a couple of big cards when he just calls as he surely understands that his really big hands are more valuable than usual against my blind defending 3-bet.

Flop comes Q4J, rainbow.

I bet, he quickly calls. I believe he would peel one here with a mid pp as when he was sitting next to me he would show me his cards and I've seen him do just that before. He would, of course, surely call with a Q and probably a J. I think the only non-pair hand he calls with here is KTs.

Turn comes J, pairing the board.

I'm almost certain that he'll bet the turn with any hand he'll calll the flop with if I check here.

Bet or Check-raise?

perhaps a follow-up given some possible actions?

I'm sure that he will JUST CALL with a Q. He may 3 bet a J, but given my image, he'll probably just call there too. At any rate, there's no way he's 3 betting unless I'm way behind.

-WT

[callmedonnie]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm almost certain that he'll bet the turn with any hand he'll calll the flop with if I check here...

He may 3 bet a J, but given my image, he'll probably just call there too. At any rate, there's no way he's 3 betting unless I'm way behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are contradicting yourself. If only three bets when you are way behind, why wouldn't he three bet a jack? You are way behind a jack, so I don't see how he couldn't.

You said he would call flop with any queen or jack, so you have to credit that as a possibility. If you are three bet, a fold is likely in order. If you lead and are raised though, is that any different? I lead, because I think I'll find out if I'm beat for one less bet.

Also, if he wouldn't raise with a queen on that flop, he must be a bit passive unless he thinks your PF three bet was BS. Check raises don't work against passive players. And when I raise in position and SB three bets me, unless there image is maniacal I give them credit for having a hand.

[WillyTrailer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm almost certain that he'll bet the turn with any hand he'll calll the flop with if I check here...

He may 3 bet a J, but given my image, he'll probably just call there too. At any rate, there's no way he's 3 betting unless I'm way behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are contradicting yourself. If only three bets when you are way behind, why wouldn't he three bet a jack? You are way behind a jack, so I don't see how he couldn't.

You said he would call flop with any queen or jack, so you have to credit that as a possibility. If you are three bet, a fold is likely in order. If you lead and are raised though, is that any different? I lead, because I think I'll find out if I'm beat for one less bet.

Also, if he wouldn't raise with a queen on that flop, he must be a bit passive unless he thinks your PF three bet was BS. Check raises don't work against passive players. And when I raise in position and SB three bets me, unless there image is maniacal I give them credit for having a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, I shoud have been a bit more clear. Villain is somewhat aggressive, but really fears me. Not enough to lay down top pair after I 3 bet preflop, but enough to not raise me with top pair on or after the flop. However, if I check, I think he'll think I missed and bet any pair.

He's also too weak of a player to lay down top pair to a turn check-raise and i'm guessing he'd even see the river and likely pay off with medium PP's if and A or a K doesn't hit the river.

As far as getting three bet is concerned, I can be more specific. I don't think he'll 3-bet a turn check-raise wtih out AJ or QJ and with AJ it's questionable as to whethere or not he'd raise. So I'm definitely folding if he 3 bets me.

I'll go ahead and put the analysis that I should have made at the table in here now.
In the event that I c/r the turn, I lose three BB when he has KJ. I lose 2 or 3 BB when he has AJ or QJ. I win 3 BB when he has AQ, KQ. I win 1, 2 or 3 when he has a PP, with a tendancy towards 2 or 3.

In the event that I bet I should fold to a raise so I just lose 1 bb when I'm raised and 2 if he waits 'til the river to raise me. It's much more likely that he'll raise me with three jacks as opposed to him 3-betting me if I had c/r'd. I win 2 bets when he just has a Q and likely 2 but maybe one when he has a mid PP.

I plugged the following range into poker stove {TT-77,AQs-AJs,KTs+,QJs,AQo-AJo,KJo+,QJo} and on the turn I still have almost 70% equity against this range.

I'm fairly confident that Villain bets all of these hands if I check too, because he's seen me show lots of preflop strength and then fold before the showdown many times but that's because the pots are usually 5-7 handed which makes folding much more frequent.

Thanks for making me think about all of this. Sometimes I just ride on intuition and don't analyze in full detail. While tons of experience does wonders for one's intuition I still need to keep it honest with in depth analysis since we all know that our intuition can be misleading/wrong sometimes.

I thought it was close at first, but now it seems pretty clear that a c/r is a good idea since it's so likely that I'm ahead and that I'll get paid off.

Poker is fun,
-WT