$22 on the bubble

[Olback]

Villian was tight and this was the first time he had raised in ages.

Should i fold knowing that i can steal at will?

Call and hope to see a nice flop?

Reraise?

#Game No : 2995575215
***** Hand History for Game 2995575215 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:17207905 Level:6 Blinds(100/200) - Monday, November 07, 02:55:15 EDT 2005
Table Table 66886 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 4: HotChic408 ( $1200 )
Seat 6: STaje9 ( $2900 )
Seat 9: WHO_AM_EYE ( $1250 )
Seat 1: Olback17 ( $2650 )
Trny:17207905 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Olback17 [ 9c 9d ]
STaje9 raises [400].
WHO_AM_EYE folds.

Olback17 ??

[TheNoodleMan]

Even with his tight image there is now way you can fold to a miniraise when you are holding 99.
If he is as tight as you say, then take the cheap flop and see what happens. If you are fortunate enough to hit your set, you might be able to double through him and be in the drivers seat. If the flop comes with some broadway cards, you only gave up 200 chips and you are still in good shape.

[pokergrader]

[ QUOTE ]
Even with his tight image there is now way you can fold to a miniraise when you are holding 99.
If he is as tight as you say, then take the cheap flop and see what happens. If you are fortunate enough to hit your set, you might be able to double through him and be in the drivers seat. If the flop comes with some broadway cards, you only gave up 200 chips and you are still in good shape.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
If the flop comes with some broadway cards, you only gave up 200 chips and you are still in good shape.

[/ QUOTE ]There will be at least one overcard about 80% of the time. So, four times you lose 200 = 800 chips. The 5th time you need to make 800 chips, there are already 700 in the pot, so you need to get an extra 100 from villian. Do you think you'll getthat much? If you bet the all unders flop, he'll probably fold unless he has a bigger pocket pair. To make up for the times that villian calls with a bigger pair, you have to have him call quite frequently when he is beat.

I don't pretend to know the answer. But, it seems ot me that if you are conceding your 200 chips everytime there is an overcard, you're going to be behind when you call the min-raise. If you're going to call, it seems you must be willing to make a play on some overcard flops.

[trevor]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think the risk/reward is really worth it here.

[/ QUOTE ]

IT'S A MIN-RAISE FOR [censored]'s SAKE!

What the hell happened to playing poker? Fold pre-flop so you don't have to? This is awful, awful advice.

Given you read call the raise and, dare I say, play poker? You are giving up too much by folding. You have to make the most of marginal opportunities like this to get wins. If you want 3rd go ahead and fold it.

[ QUOTE ]
Even if you hit your set, you are unlikely to stack him unless he has an overpair or TP, you don't have the implied odds here to simply play for set value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Making these kind of assumptions is beyond weak-tight as well as incorrect. You are getting 3:1, which is more than enough. How does he not have enough implied odds? If you happened to snag a caller in between are you folding 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

I am rarely this harsh but I cannot believe the number of people who think folding in this spot can be anywhere near correct.

[DPCondit]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't pretend to know the answer. But, it seems ot me that if you are conceding your 200 chips everytime there is an overcard, you're going to be behind when you call the min-raise. If you're going to call, it seems you must be willing to make a play on some overcard flops.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, so we make a play on some overcard flops. Would you seriously consider folding every time an overcard flops?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't pretend to know the answer. But, it seems ot me that if you are conceding your 200 chips everytime there is an overcard, you're going to be behind when you call the min-raise. If you're going to call, it seems you must be willing to make a play on some overcard flops.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, so we make a play on some overcard flops. Would you seriously consider folding every time an overcard flops?

[/ QUOTE ]Two things:

1) No. But, I was responding to Noodleman, who assumed we'd be losing everytime an overcard came on the flop. I was trying to show that calling was bad under this assumption. That is, I was suggesting that you have to play some overcard flops if you want to call the min-raise.

2) In this bubble situation, I may be less willing to try to play "poker". I'm not an expert at SNGs or other forms of poker, but I am reasonably sure that good bubble play would be laughed at in other poker situations.

Tricky.

These are the few hands that I get owned on. If he has me beat the villian keeps making 1/4 or 1/3 pot bets I can't resist to fold and then I'm down to like 800 chips.

My edge sucks here because I never know where I'm at, I prefer to piss off the short stacks, but then again if I can win this hand and can bully all 3. Then again he is tight, prolly would call AKo if I push so yeah I think I'm gunna be a pussy and fold this.

[Hendricks433]

I call and see a flop. Im not ready to commit my whole stack with 99 here.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
I call and see a flop. Im not ready to commit my whole stack with 99 here.

[/ QUOTE ]