A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches

[Equal]

What's hilarious is that Smoothcall is back to his Negreanu bashing. However, the minute Daniel posted on this site, Smoothcall was backpedalling and kissing a$$ like there was no tomorrow. Funny stuff.

When I was at the WSOP I heard a conversation that DN was getting $3.5 million a year from the Wynn with the caveat that he make an appearance at the Wynn (or play poker at the Wynn) 235 days a year.

Anyway, interesting thread from the original poster.

[Michael O'Malley]

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he was paid $3 million for this exclusive.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Michael O'Malley]

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he was paid $3 million for this exclusive.


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I have no idea if you have any real information or are just guessing, but as someone with experience in this field, I would be stunned if the amount was anything close to $3 million.

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Any number can sound reasonable to the right person. Any reasonable person could sit down and figure out that this number is completely insane.

[lgas]

My theory is, I think, fairly straightforward:

He is getting some decent amount of money from his deal with the Wynn, whether it's $3m or not is debatable, but whatever... anyway, he's also made quite a killing playing in the WSOP last year, the WPT this year, etc. etc. So the bottom line is he has quite a bit of cash, probably even more than we would guess if he's invested some of it well. Presumably the amount of money he is putting at risk may be a significant portion of his net worth, but would not leave him broke if he lost it.

So, basically, he can afford to do this.

Now, if he does it, due to the high variance nature of the situation, it's easy for him to come out ahead, even if he's not the best player in the majority of the games, if this doesn't happen, he can still just choose to stop at any point and take whatever loss he as accrued. Now, whether he wins or loses, he's getting a chance to play with some of the best poker players in the world at their best games. Even if he goes into each one as an underdog, there's no denying that he's a very smart and skilled player. So now you have a very smart and skilled player who's getting a chance to play the best at their best games... imagine what he can learn from this... now imagine you are already someone that can play at Daniel's level and you get this sort of experience -- what is that worth to you over the next 20 years of your career? (Or, the next 40 if he lasts as long as Brunson?)

It seems pretty obvious to me that it's quite a +EV situation he has created for himself here, all around.

[Paul Phillips]

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So now you have a very smart and skilled player who's getting a chance to play the best at their best games... imagine what he can learn from this...

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I'm doing my best to imagine and all I can imagine is "damn, there must have been a way to learn whatever it is I'm learning for less than half a million bucks a pop."

I like your enthusiasm though. It sounds like nothing daniel does could ever be -EV.

[Prevaricator]

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It seems pretty obvious to me that it's quite a +EV situation he has created for himself here, all around.


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if daniel lost the 3rd and 4th matches vs barry, would you still say this? probably not. variance plays too big of a role in people's perception of ability.

[CaptSensible]

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That is interesting. Your saying win paid him 3 million for a year? Where did u hear that. just curious, sounds like ALOT!

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If you think about the 10's of millions of dollars that go into advertising budgets it's actually not that much.

[Johnnyj580]

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So now you have a very smart and skilled player who's getting a chance to play the best at their best games... imagine what he can learn from this...

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I'm doing my best to imagine and all I can imagine is "damn, there must have been a way to learn whatever it is I'm learning for less than half a million bucks a pop."

I like your enthusiasm though. It sounds like nothing daniel does could ever be -EV.

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If he named his son Fold or maybe Smoothcall (pun intended), that might graze the hair of -EV

-John
(Got em both!)

[Smoothcall]

Just because Cooke can be honest about how he played in his mind does not mean Daniel plays better. Just because Daniel thinks he's great doesn't make it so.

I am not going to any length to insult daniel. I am trying to make a point that just because he tells you he's great doesn't means its so. He didn't get rich playing live poker. He got broke more than once playing live poker but never got rich. He got rich through tournaments.

Why do you discredit Mason and Cooke so easily? Show me Daniel is better? Why am i the bad guy saying there better. But yet your the good guy by saying daniel is better. Just because Mason and Cooke don't constantly feel the need to tell us how great they are like daniel does doesn't make daniel great and them not. And i don't know whose better. And neither do you. But at least i'm backing mine up with argument and not just saying daniel is better because Mason or Cooke haven't played 2-4k or because they can admit when they make a mistake. Again Daniel has a history of going broke playing live. These men don't!

[Smoothcall]

No backpeddling. I was trying to be nice to him so i wasn't accused of chasing him away where you guys would blame me and cry. I wanted to give him a chance to explain. But instead he made one reply and then ran.